Chase Elliott won the Cookout Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium in dominant fashion. He had the fastest lap time in practice in his group, led every lap of his heat, and led over 170 laps of the race on Sunday. But does it matter? Does The Clash correlate to in-season success? Does the location really matter?
The last 10 Clash winners have combined for 24 wins since 2015. Eight have won a race after winning the Clash(Johnson in 2019 and Erik Jones in 2020 did not), but only Joey Logano has won a Championship(2022). Moreover, half of them finished in the top 10(Truex Jr. was 11th in 2023).
Since NASCAR moved the preseason event to quarter-mile tracks, the correlation between success at The Clash and success in the season has only grown. In 2022, the first year at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Logano took home the victory and the Championship later that year.
The following year, Truex Jr. took the checkered flag at the Coliseum; while he did not win the Championship, he collected three wins, led almost 900 laps, and compiled 17 top-10s.
Denny Hamlin won the most recent race at the Coliseum and finished 2024 in 8th place, with three wins, nearly 950 laps, 12 top-5s, and 18 top-10s.
Even in 2021, when The Clash was held on the Daytona road course, there was a decent correlation between winning The Clash and in-season success. Kyle Busch, the road course winner, wound up 9th overall in ‘21 with 2 wins and 22 top-10s. Chase Elliott, the runner-up, placed fourth at the end of the season with 5,032 points.
The correlation decreases significantly when it comes to The Clash at Daytona. Between 2015 and 2020, only two winners of The Clash finished in the top 10 in points for the season(Hamlin in 2016 and Brad Keselowski in 2018).
It seems that racing on a smaller track correlates more to in-season success. This is likely because speedway racing has more random variables than short-track racing. A driver can run near the front for 100 laps and then get spun out on the back straight away, ending his day and removing several other drivers from the field. Conversely, spinning out at a short track generally does not result in several cars being removed from the race.
According to Hendrickmotorsports.com, Bowman Gray is somewhat similar to Martinsville and Phoenix Raceway, the last two tracks in the playoffs. If that is the case, then having a preseason race at The Madhouse is invaluable to teams. The data collected from running over 200 laps there could go a long way in a championship run. In that regard, this year’s Clash had significant benefits for the teams.
At the very least, most teams did not have to travel too far for this year’s Clash, so it did not hurt them. That said, recent conversations about next year’s Clash would require teams to move over 1,000 miles.
There are reports NASCAR could move to Brazil for the 2026 Clash. The Athletic’s Jordan Bianchi reported that it would take at least 10 days to “efficiently prepare” for a race in Brazil and a week to return to the U.S. to get ready for The Great American Race. This could significantly hinder a team’s ability to perform in the Daytona 500.
Whether they move it to a road course or a quarter-mile, a brand new course for NASCAR in Brazil or a grassroots track in the U.S., racing fans will always have something to look forward to in The Clash.
