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Darlington was the longest fully paved track on the NASCAR circuit when it opened in 1950. Today however it is one of the shorter intermediate tracks at just at 1.366-miles long. The track is an egg shaped oval. Despite the shorter distance high speeds are obtained with 25 degree banking in turns 1/2 and 23 degree banking in turns 3/4.
The egg shape means that it can be challenging for teams to setup a car to handle well in all four turns. Darlington is also noted for its extremely high tire wear. Ultimately this all means that when handicapping Darlington lots of tracks can show correlation at different times. My focus is on Darlington history and 2023 intermediate performance. Given the high tire wear however, I do also look some to driver performance at other high wear tracks, like Richmond.
One final note before we get to my early bet. It’s worth noting that once again this week the books are not presenting a lot of value. Between large holds and sharper odds there just isn’t a lot of value. Last year practice speed ahead of the Southern 500 was highly indicative of race speed. So I’m hopeful that after practice and qualifying we may be able find some more value.
This group, also available at Hard Rock Sportsbook as Group 1 consists of Martin Truex Jr, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, and William Byron. Truex is the favorite at +200. Larson and Chastain are both +250. At +400 the implied odds for Byron to win this group are just 20%. That is simply to low.
In the Gen 7 car Byron has been quite strong at Darlington. In the three races here so far he has led laps in every race. That includes 7 laps of the race here this spring which he won. Over those three races he has an average running position of 5.06. That’s the second best average of the group, behind only Truex at 4.70. It’s well ahead of the 8.96 of Chastain and 14.07. This includes having the best average running position of the group at the Southern 500 last year. He also had the best average running position of the group at Darlington this spring. Although it should be noted that Larson had some odd equipment issues here last year.
If we move to high speed, high banked intermediate tracks in 2023, (Las Vegas, Kansas, Darlington, and Kansas), Byron’s average running position remains strong. Byron once again has the second best average running position at 6.72. Truex again leads the group at 5.5. Larson comes in third at 6.86. Chastain brings up the rear at 8.65. Byron has also finished inside the Top 3 at all four races.
Byron’s odds to win this group should be much closer to 25% or +300. Indeed, at Draft Kings he is just +310 to win the arguably stronger group with himself, Truex, Larson, and Hamlin.
I’ve placed one unit on this bet and would bet it down to +350.
