What’s Happening?

When the Next-Gen car was originally introduced, it created unprecedented levels of parity throughout the field. However, we’ve slowly seen the field spread slightly, and the top teams are starting to show their muscle. Is the era of parity over for the Next-Gen car?

• In the first year or two of the Next-Gen era, many new faces emerged as genuine threats to win NASCAR Cup Series races. However, those race teams that emerged have regressed, while the bigger, more established teams are winning more races.
• However, parity still exists in some other forms. Overall, NASCAR fields are still very close, but teams are learning more about the Next-Gen car.
• Is this an issue that NASCAR needs to fix, or is it something that they should just let play out? That’s the debate regarding the Next-Gen car.

The Emergence of the Top Teams

In 2022, the NASCAR Cup Series saw 19 different winners, which tied a NASCAR Cup Series record for the most winners in a season. It was the most in NASCAR’s modern era since 2001, with 19 different winners. This included the emergence of teams like 23XI Racing, Richard Childress Racing, and Trackhouse, each of which won multiple races, and Trackhouse, with driver Ross Chastain, making the Championship 4.

The 2023 season was similar, with RFK Racing emerging as genuine threats and Front Row Motorsports and JTG-Daugherty Racing making the Playoffs with wins. However, this season saw a more modest 15 winners.

In 2024, we have only 12 winners through 22 races; most notably, the biggest race teams are starting to separate themselves. Here are the combined win statistics for flagship organizations for each manufacturer throughout the Next-Gen era: Team Penske for Ford, Hendrick Motorsports for Chevrolet, and Joe Gibbs Racing for Toyota.

In 2024, the biggest race teams in NASCAR are starting to emerge more prominently than in the past. Look at the points standings 22 races into the 2024 season, where these four teams hold nine of the top 11 spots (82%). Compare that to 2022 and 2023, where these teams only took up seven of 11 (64%) and six of 11 (55%) in the final standings, respectively. These top teams have always been the “Class of the field,” but their advantage is greater now than it has been in this era.

We’ve also seen regression amongst the other teams. Trackhouse and RFK Racing have one driver in with a win and another firmly on the Playoff bubble. Richard Childress Racing hasn’t won a race in over a year, and Front Row Motorsports and JTG-Daugherty Racing sit outside the top 20 in points. 23XI Racing has still maintained with Tyler Reddick in the top five in points, but they have a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing.

What Happened, and Is It Something NASCAR Can Fix?

While the top teams are definitely emerging, the Cup Series cars are still closer together than they ever have been. The margin of victory demonstrates this.

Christopher Bell, earlier this year at Phoenix, locked up the largest margin of victory in the Next-Gen era, 5.465 seconds. Compare that to 2021, when Kyle Larson dominated the Coca-Cola 600, leading 327 laps and winning by 10.051 seconds. The cars cannot get away from each other.

Auto Racing Analytics published the graphic below regarding the spring 2024 race at Martinsville. It showcases just how close the cars ran in terms of lap time.

It’s also worth noting that the 2024 season has produced two of the four closest finishes in NASCAR history.

Regardless of how much closer the field is, the bigger are still finding ways to win more races and find that little bit of an edge. The bigger teams simply have more resources, allowing them to learn how to work within the tight Next-Gen parameters more quickly and efficiently to find that extra half-tenth of speed.

There’s no greater evidence that teams are learning this car than how one particularly open entry has performed this season. This year, MBM Motorsports is making its’ first Cup Series starts in two seasons, and in six races, they have qualified last or next to last in four of six races, with their best start being 37th. Aside from not having the resources of other teams, they’re behind because they don’t have the experience of working on these cars and finding the most speed out of them.

Is this slight shift in power something NASCAR needs to address? Maybe not at the moment, as NASCAR needs to allow fair competition to occur. If a team finds something within the rules’ limits, should they be penalized for it?

However, NASCAR has to balance that with keeping competition close. It’s tough to keep team owners and sponsors interested if there is no chance they can win or compete well on an average Sunday.

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