With Joey Logano recently tying NASCAR legend Bobby Isaac, and Denny Hamlin reaching the 56-win mark, besides Kyle Larson, at a relatively young age, winning more than anybody in the sport, one question can be raised: How far can they get in number of wins, and how much can they climb on the all-time wins list? These questions are tough to answer with precision because of the unpredictable nature of racing; we can certainly analyze and try to come to an educated conclusion, so we will answer the following questions: Which active drivers could reach the mark of 60 wins by the end of their careers, how likely is it to happen, and where would that stack them up on the all-time wins list.
Note1: We will consider 45 years old as the projected retirement age.
Note2: The average wins per season will account for only the last five seasons in which the driver has raced fully.
Note3: Only drivers with 10+ wins were accounted
| Current Age | 40 |
| Approximate Years Left | 5 |
| Average Wins | 1.4 |
| Total Wins Projection | 70 |
| Projected Rank | 10th |
Kyle Busch is the only active driver to surpass the 60-win mark. Though now, with RCR, he has put a “pause” to his winning ways, he is chasing another milestone: 70 wins. It probably depends more on the RCR equipment than on Busch himself, but being just seven wins away, he will certainly try.
| Current Age | 44 |
| Approximate Years Left | 2 |
| Average Wins | 3.4 |
| Total Wins Projection | 61 |
| Projected Rank | 12th |
Though he is getting closer to retirement at age 44, Hamlin demonstrates that he is still at the top level, and he’s probably hungrier than ever for a first championship. With two wins already in 2025, which came in back-to-back races, Hamlin looks strong and could even possibly extend his career beyond age 45, as he has shown longevity. But only time will tell that, and for now, it seems very likely that he will break into the 60-win mark.
| Current Age | 34 |
| Approximate Years Left | 10 |
| Average Wins | 2.6 |
| Total Wins Projection | 62 |
| Projected Rank | 11th |
Logano started his career at a very young age, and despite having been racing for over 19 years, he is 34 years old. Despite not looking like he has been at his best form recently, he just won 2 championships in the last 3 years, and in that span, he won 9 races in just 3 seasons. He may not be as consistent as Chase Elliott, but he wins a lot, and usually the critical races. Logano seems to love the sport and racing, so it doesn’t look like he’s going anywhere anytime soon. Reaching 60 seems likely, but at 35, he’s closer to running out of time than others on this list.
| Current Age | 41 |
| Approximate Years Left | 4 |
| Average Wins | 1.2 |
| Total Wins Projection | 41 |
| Projected Rank | 25th |
Keselowski is 41 years old and is at a career low in every statistical aspect. It is pretty safe to say that Brad is not reaching 60 wins as he approaches the final years of his career and has not looked like a contender ever since he left Penske. The fact is, achieving 24 more wins seems impossible at this rate, but never say never.
| Current Age | 32 |
| Approximate Years Left | 13 |
| Average Wins | 4.8 |
| Total Wins Projection | 95 |
| Projected Rank | 3rd |
Kyle Larson has the best average number of wins in NASCAR and is relatively young. If he keeps it up for six more years, he will already get there. At this rate, it’s not only likely that he will do it but also a long shot to say he won’t. The most impressive? If he retires at age 45 with this winning rate, he would be past legends like Dale Earnhardt, Cale Yarborough, Jimmie Johnson, Darrell Waltrip, and even Jeff Gordon. But will his career last so long that he can break those records, and how many championships will he get on his way to them? Only time will tell, but numbers would suggest that he is a legend in the making.
| Current Age | 29 |
| Approximate Years Left | 16 |
| Average Wins | 2.6 |
| Total Wins Projection | 60 |
| Projected Rank | 14th |
Elliott is a curious case, as he won 12 of his 19 career races between 2020 and 2022 but has only won one in the last 3 years. So it’s curious to ask: Which version of Chase Elliott will we see throughout the years? The fact is, the most popular driver has been well-known for his consistency, not his wins. Still, Elliott will likely return to the rhythm sooner rather than later and return to his winning ways. Reaching 60 may seem like a long shot at this rate, but remember, he won 12 races in just 3 years at one point, and that is not unlikely to happen again.
| Current Age | 27 |
| Approximate Years Left | 18 |
| Average Wins | 2.6 |
| Total Wins Projection | 61 |
| Projected Rank | 12th |
The youngest driver on this list may just have reached his prime, or is he just getting started? He has 9 wins in 2 years, 2022 and 2023. His 14 wins may not seem like a lot, but Byron is only in his 8th year. He may very well reach the mark, and considering he had a 6-win season in 2023, a 2.6 average for a decade and a half sounds reachable.
| Current Age | 31 |
| Approximate Years Left | 14 |
| Average Wins | 2 |
| Total Wins Projection | 41 |
| Projected Rank | 25th |
Blaney is in his 12th year in the Cup Series, and it’s easy to say he’s in his prime. He’s been running up front and dominating races, which means he has speed. Despite Penske’s reliability issues, you cannot account for these problems keeping him away from victory lane forever. The most wins Blaney has ever reached in a season was 3, but he did it 3 times, all in the last 4 seasons. He may win way more than 41 races, but from what we’ve seen so far, that’s about where he will stack up.
| Current Age | 30 |
| Approximate Years Left | 15 |
| Average Wins | 2.4 |
| Total Wins Projection | 50 |
| Projected Rank | 18th |
The last driver in this list is in a similar situation to Blaney; however, Bell is only in his 6th season ever, and he has won three times in three of the last 4 years, including three consecutive wins to kick off 2025. Bell is just getting started, and I would say he will likely compete with Larson’s average of yearly wins very soon. Twelve wins in the first 6 years of a career is impressive, and he has steadily improved his numbers year after year. It’s early, but Bell will be in contention to get there.
1st. Richard Petty (200)
2nd. David Pearson (105)
3rd. Kyle Larson (95)
4th. Jeff Gordon (93)
5th. Bobby Allison (85)
6th. Darrell Waltrip (84)
T7th. Cale Yarborough (83)
T7th. Jimmie Johnson (83)
9th. Dale Earnhardt (76)
10th. Kyle Busch (70)
11th. Joey Logano (62)
T12th. Denny Hamlin (61)
T12th. William Byron (61)
T14th. Chase Elliott (60)
T14th. Kevin Harvick (60)
16th. Rusty Wallace (55)
17th. Lee Petty (54)
T18th. Junior Johnson (50)
T18th. Ned Jarrett (50)
T18th. Christopher Bell (50)
21st. Tony Stewart (49)
22nd. Herb Thomas (48)
23rd. Buck Baker (46)
24th. Bill Elliott (44)
T25th. Ryan Blaney (41)
T25th. Brad Keselowski (41)
Check the FULL, actual all-time wins list HERE
What did you think, race fan? Which active drivers do you believe could reach up to 60 wins? Let us know your thoughts by joining our Discord or X. Remember to follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube for more updates.
