Welcome to the first edition of my NASCAR Xfinity Best Bets here on The Daily Downforce. As rain engulfs the Fontana, California area for the final chapter of the 2-mile oval, The Greatest in the Universe is still here to lighten your weekend up with some winning NASCAR bets.
I hate to see the speedway transform into a short-track project, but business is a part of life. NASCAR made one hell of a lick off of this deal, so I will suck it up and accept the fact that a looming demolition is in place for—what we hope is—the betterment of the sport.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets
Austin Dillon -125 Over Ross Chastain (Barstool Sportsbook)
Yes; both of these drivers are competing in the Xfinity Series race this weekend. One is in a solidified, full-time entry with an upper-tier Xfinity Series team, and the other is driving for DGM Racing in a part-time entry.
Austin Dillon will be in the #10 car for Kaulig Racing that will be used as the “All-Star” car in 2023. It will compete in every race this season in the series. Austin Dillon has 4 Top 5 finishes and 1 win in 5 Auto Club starts over the course of his Xfinity Series career.
Ross Chastain will field the DGM #91 on Saturday. Do I think this car can be competitive? Yes. Do I think Ross Chastain is a great driver? Yes.
Do I also think I should hammer Austin Dillon in this matchup because of the uncertainties around the DGM equipment? Also; yes.
This line has seen some dramatic movement. Austin Dillon opened as a +100 underdog on Barstool Sportsbook. Within an hour of me posting this bet in the Garage Guys Discord, he slid to -121. Make sure you join our discord for up-to-the-date betting advice so you don’t miss a line such as this next time.
Brandon Jones: Top 3 +350, To Win +1200 (Barstool Sportsbook)
Everybody rewarded the opportunity to drive the #9 for JR Motorsports over the last decade has oozed success. Noah Gragson, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, and Chase Elliott all bloomed into Xfinity Series superstars.
Of course, we’ve seen a lot of Brandon Jones over the years in this series, and there’s very much so a consensus agreement that he lacks the star power of the aforementioned list of drivers. That’s fine; let me just convince you why he’s a solid bet for today.
Jones doesn’t have the finishes to back it up, but his runs at this track over the last two years were win-threatening performances. In 2020 he led the most laps before getting wrecked by Daniel Hemric, and in 2022 he had a likely top 5 run before being wrecked by.. Daniel Hemric.
If our guy Daniel stays out of the picture this time around, I love Jones’s chances at 12-1. He gets Justin Allgaier’s longtime crew chief Jason Burdett (18-time Xfinity Series winner) in ’23. Burdett had Allgaier dialed in on higher-speed and high-wear racetracks last season.
Frankly, Jones could unload with the fastest car in the field as JR Motorsports collectively excelled on higher-speed intermediates in 2022, and Jones already excels on this track type. I’m more than happy to take a stab at the other “Jones boy” this weekend at this price.
Kaz Grala: Top 5 +1800, To Win +30000 (Caesar’s Sportsbook)
I think it’s a good idea to throw some underdog plays on your betting card this weekend with the weather in consideration. Additionally, Kaz is driving a Sam Hunt Racing Toyota full-time in ’23. John Hunter Nemechek raced part-time with this team and was competitive on multiple occasions. I expect this car to be good.
Back to the weather; with rain in the area all weekend long, you never know if either race this weekend could be a race to the halfway point. With that even in the realm of possibility, drivers and teams who may not be championship contenders have an opportunity to be much more aggressive as they could lock up a playoff spot by gambling on strategy. +30000 in this scenario is simply too high.
Anthony Alfredo: Top 5 +4500 (Caesar’s Sportsbook)
The same reasoning with Grala applies here. I think last week proved that Anthony isn’t driving a straight-up back marker. I think this team has similar capabilities to his #23 ride with Our Motorsports last year.
He finished 5th in this race by gambling on strategy as his team saved an extra set of tires for the late stages. Considering the weather, considering the hungriness, and considering the old-school veteran crew chief on the box in Pat Tryson, this is worth a sprinkle.