After back-to-back weeks at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the shortest track on the circuit, Martinsville Speedway, this weekend. Martinsville is a true oval measuring just 0.526 miles long. The track has 12 degrees of banking in the turns. The front and back straightaways are flat. Martinsville is unique among tracks that NASCAR visits in terms of its surface. The track has both concrete in the turns and asphalt on the straightaways.
Martinsville does not have any true comparable tracks. Its short length and unusual combination of concrete and asphalt surface mean that the best predictor of Martinsville is just Martinsville. However, some information can still be gained by looking at driver performance on the 1-mile or shorter flat tracks. As such, when handicapping this race, I am interested in how drivers performed at Phoenix three weeks ago. In addition, NASCAR is using the same tire combination this week as it used at the Clash at Bowman Gray. So, while there are important distinctions between the tracks, I am also looking at driver performance in that event.
Chase Elliott really likes running at Martinsville. The team he races for, Hedrick Motorsports (HMS), also really likes Martinsville. In 19 starts here, Elliott has led 20+ laps 10 times. In the Gen 7 car he has finished inside the Top 10 in five of six races. That includes finishes of third last spring and second last fall. In 1984, HMS won its first Cup Series race at Martinsville. Since then, HMS has won here 29 times, a staggering 36% of races. HMS drivers have a nearly 55% Top 10 rate.
Over the past two years at Martinsville, Elliott has run 48% of his laps in the Top 5. He has also run 40% of his laps in the Top 3. Taking out an unusually poor performance in the spring of 2023, where he still finished 10th, the numbers jump. Removing the outlying race he has run 61% of laps in the Top 5 and 52% in the Top 3.
This year, Elliott ran very well at the Clash. He won the pole and led 171 of 200 laps in that event. He had a lackluster performance at Phoenix. Elliott qualified sixth but then fell back in the race and finished 10th. However, since he still finished Top 10, the Phoenix result doesn’t concern me.
At Win The Race our SIM FMV has Elliott as the fourth most likely to win the race on Sunday. He is neck and neck with fellow HMS driver Kyle Larson in win percentage. Based on this, I took Larson to win for .3u at +900 earlier this week at FanDuel. The +900 to win number is gone, but there is still value on Elliott in the positional markets.
Since I already took Elliott +900 to win earlier this week, I’m limiting my bet sizes here. I don’t want to be overexposed to Elliott having a bad day. So I’m capping my total exposure at 1.5u, counting the .3u I already bet. I’m going to size my bets as 2/3 Top 5, and 1/3 Top 3. So I’m going .8u Top 5 +120 and .4u Top 3 +225. The Top 5 bet is less widely available (although you can get +125 at Kambi books if you have access).
If you don’t have access to the Top 5 bet, then I don’t mind increasing the Top 3 bet. I wouldn’t go over a unit, but if you don’t have the Top 5 and don’t have him outright, I don’t mind a full unit on Elliott to finish Top 3. If you don’t have anything on him outright and have access to the Top 5 and Top 3 I would go 1unit Top 5 and .5u Top 3.
The Top 5 bet is good down to +110 and the Top 3 is playable to +200.
