This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series is headed to the The Last Great Colosseum, that is Bristol Motor Speedway. Bristol is a unique track on the NASCAR schedule. At 0.533 miles in length, it is the second shortest non-exhibition track that the Cup Series visits. However, unlike the other short tracks that NASCAR visits, Bristol is not a flat track. With 24–28 degrees of banking in the turns Bristol features some of the steepest banking of any track on the schedule. Bristol is also one of only three tracks on the Cup Series schedule that use concrete pavement.
No track directly compares to Bristol, given its short length, high banking, and concrete surface. Dover Motor Speedway has some correlation as it features steep banking and a concrete surface, but it measures nearly twice the length of Bristol. Historically recent speed in the intermediate package is also predictive of speed at Bristol. Given its unique nature though, the most predictive tool for Bristol before practice and qualifying is Bristol history. This is particularly true for the Sunday’s race, as the Cup Series hasn’t been to Dover yet in 2025.
The clear favorites for this weekend are Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. Larson led 462 of the 500 laps in last year’s fall race. He also finished fifth in the spring race. Denny Hamlin won the spring race, leading 163 laps and was fourth in the fall. At Win The Race our SIM FMV technically shows some value on the two at their current prices depending on the book. However, given that 500 laps of close quarters racing can lead to chaos at times, I’m not quite ready to bite at these prices. I’m ready to jump on one group bet now, though.
At Caesars Group D is made up of Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Tyler Reddick. The Win The Race SIM FMV has Alex Bowman as the clear favorite for this group. Our simulations have Bowman winning the group nearly 50% of the time, which translates to fair odds of around +105.
Given what I wrote above about track history being so important, it may be surprising that Kyle Busch isn’t a bigger factor in this group. Busch has won eight times here. He has also finished in the Top 10 in more than 50% of his starts at the track. The past few years have not been good to Kyle Busch at this track though. In four Gen 7 starts he has a best finish of 20th. He hasn’t finished on the lead lap in any of the races. The only laps led for him came in last year’s spring race which had unusual tire wear and resulted in a ton of drivers “randomly” leading laps. His RCR teammate, Austin Cindric, has also struggled here, with a best finish of 17th.
Similarly, Joey Logano, who has two wins at Bristol hasn’t run well at the track in recent years. Since 2020 his best finish at the track is a pair of 11th place results (in 2019 and 2020). He hasn’t finished better than 22nd in the Gen 7 car.
Tyler Reddick has never run well at Bristol in the Cup Series. Despite a win in the Xfinity Series, in 7 Cup Series starts he has one finish inside the Top 10. He hasn’t finished better than 15th in the Gen 7 car.
On the other hand, Bowman has shown great improvement at Bristol over the past few years. After wrecking in the first Gen 7 race here in 2022 (when he had qualified 3rd), his last three results have been 13th, fourth, and ninth. Last fall he won the pole here and led 34 laps before eventual race winner Kyle Larson passed him and with the exception of a pit cycle never gave the lead back.
All and all, at Bristol in the Gen 7 car Bowman has been the most consistent of these four drivers. With the exception of the 2022 race in which he wrecked, Bowman has easily won this group in the other three Gen 7 races. +105 may be a bit aggressive for this group, but Bowman should be an obvious favorite in the group and I would comfortably bet this down to +150. I will likely be targeting Bowman in other markets this week, so I am only putting half a unit on it, but if you want to make this your sole Bowman bet of the week I don’t mind going a full unit on it.
