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Austin Dillon’s win at Richmond sent massive shockwaves through the NASCAR garage, causing a major shakeup in the Cup Series playoff bubble. Dillon sat 32nd in points before winning, pushing bubble drivers like Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher well below the cut line—until it didn’t.
It was announced on Wednesday that Dillon would keep his win, but due to his actions on the last lap, dumping Joey Logano and right-rearing Denny Hamlin, the win would become encumbered, meaning the playoff spot gained by winning had been revoked. This ruling by NASCAR reversed the chaos caused by Dillon’s win and moved the playoff cutline back to “normal.” So, with the removal of Dillon from the playoff grid and the shakeup that it caused, who has the edge for the final playoff spot with three races to go?
Bubba Wallace is undoubtedly the hottest driver around the playoff cutline right now. In the last few races, the 23XI driver has gone from over 60 points back of Chastain to overtaking the driver of the #1 after a top-five finish at Richmond. With an average finish of 7.8 dating back to Nashville, Wallace is definitely on the upward trajectory toward a playoff berth.
On the other hand, Chastain is moving in the wrong direction. At one point this season, the Trackhouse driver had a comfortable cushion to the cutline. But with a recent run of poor performances combined with a handful of first-time winners forcing him further down the playoff picture. With an average finish of 22.2 since Nashville, where it looked like he had his best chance to win his way into the playoffs, Chastain has lost all his advantage on Wallace and now sees himself on the wrong side of the cutline with three races to go.
While Chastain has been having a rough go of it lately, none has it worse over the last five races than Martin Truex Jr. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been absolutely ice cold since Nashville, carrying an abysmal average finish over that span of 25.8. Fortunately for Truex, his early season success and consistency have given him a favorable cushion down the stretch, currently +78 on the playoff cutline. Will it be enough to secure Truex a playoff spot? We will soon find out, but with another three finishes similar to what the #19 has seen over the last month, it could be a very uncomfortable time for fans of MTJ and JGR.
While Wallace is en fuego and Chastain and Truex are ice cold, there are a few drivers around the cutline who are lukewarm. Drivers like Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher have been somewhere in the middle. Not as hot as Wallace, but not shivering like Truex, these three drivers are doing just enough to maintain position. The driver performing the poorest of these two right now is Gibbs, with an average finish of 19.6 over the last five races to Buescher’s 15.2.
Buescher is currently tied with Chastain for the final playoff spot but holds the tiebreak over the #1, so if the season ended today, Chastain would lose out. However, there is plenty of racing to go to determine who sneaks into the final spot.
While we’ve examined the drivers within the immediate vicinity of the cut line, some names well below the cut line should be monitored, none more prevalent than Kyle Busch. Rowdy has had an absolutely miserable season so far, but the two-time champion, despite his incredibly bad luck this season, cannot be written off. Not only is Busch looking to win his way into the playoffs, but he’s also on a mission to continue his streak of consecutive seasons with at least one race win, currently sitting at 19 straight seasons, a NASCAR record.
Taking a look at the remaining tracks before the playoffs – Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington – Busch likely has his best chance at Daytona, given RCR’s lack of speed shown at non-superspeedway tracks this year, as well as Daytona being a total wildcard. He only has one career win at Michigan, which came back in 2011, and an average finish of 17.5. He does have a handful of wins at Daytona, but only one being a non-Duel race, which was the 2008 night race, and an average finish of 18.5. As for Darlington, he also has one win there, coming back in 2008, and carries a 13.8 average finish. The likelihood of Busch making the playoffs is very slim, but we’ve learned over the years that you cannot write off Rowdy.
Who do you think gets in? Is there someone above the cut line currently that you think will fall out? How about a long shot that will get in? Let us know! You can always find us on our socials at The Daily Downforce, and be sure to stick with us for the latest NASCAR news and updates.
