The first round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs concludes on Sunday on the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course. The “Roval” is a 2.32-mile long road course that utilizes portions of the 1.5-mile quad-oval and also winds through the infield of the track. This makes the track unique as compared to other road courses in that it has turns with 24 degrees of banking.
Not withstanding its unique banking in the turns, when handicapping the Roval the most relevant tracks are still road courses. However, perhaps even more so than the other road courses on the schedule, a driver’s history at the Roval itself is extremely important. So this week I’m turning to a driver who has had great success both at road courses in 2025 and at the Roval over the past three years in the Gen 7 car.
Only one driver not named Shane Van Gisbergen has won on a road course in 2025. That driver is Christopher Bell. Back in March Bell drove through the field from 19th to win at the Circuit of the Americas.
In June Bell again drove through the field. This time starting in 31st, to finish second in Mexico City. Bell’s qualifying efforts finally improved at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. He started those races in 10th and ninth place respectively. In both races he improved on his starting position during the race. At Sonoma Bell finished fifth and he came in second at Watkins Glen.
Bell’s history at the Roval is quite strong. He won the first race at the Roval in the Gen 7 car. Last year he came in second. Even in 2023, when he finished 15th, he qualified second and ran nearly half of his laps in the Top 5.
At Win The Race we have Bell second only to Shane Van Gisbergen. The gap from Bell to the field is quite significant and we show value on Bell in just about every market. That said, I don’t want to over expose myself to Bell, particularly since he still hasn’t qualified better than ninth at a road course in 2025. While he has driven through the field twice, that’s not an easy task.
The best value that I’m seeing on Bell is in the Top 5 and Top 3 markets. Bet365 has Bell at +160 for a Top 5, which is well below our fair odds of +120. Bet365 also has Bell at +275 for a Top 3. Again this is well below our fair odds of +208. I would bet these down to +140 in the Top 5 market and +230 in the Top 3 market.
