With the Coke Zero Sugar 400 just a few days away, the opportunity for a first-time winner is higher than ever before. Currently, 10 full-time Cup Series drivers have not gone to victory lane at the highest level of stock car racing. Superspeedway racing always gives the best chance for a first-time winner, and with no one collecting their first win so far this year, could Daytona see the first? Let’s go through the drivers and rank them off of who’s most likely to get their first career win.
Daniel Hemric is in his second full-time season in Cup and first since 2019. The 2022 Xfinity Series champion has not had the return he was hoping for with Kaulig Racing. He is currently 30th in the standings with only 14 laps led. What places Hemric last on this list is he has not shown the ability to be up front late in a plate race, and hasn’t had any flashes throughout the season, which other drivers have. His future is unclear and of the 11 winless drivers in Cup, he’s the most likely to stay winless.
Harrison Burton has not panned out at the Cup level. Every season has worsened since he joined the Wood Brothers in 2022. These poor performances ultimately resulted in him losing his ride to Josh Berry for 2024, and with no clear plans for next season, Burton’s future is uncertain. He has shown some flashes at times, particularly at Darlington, where he runs inside the top 10 and has led laps at superspeedways, but it’s not enough to consider him a genuine contender for a race win.
Like Hemric, John Hunter Nemecheck is in his second full-time season and first after a long hiatus. His return has seen flashes early, but disappointment overall throughout the year. To his defense, Legacy Motor Club is still figuring out their new alliance with Toyota, and the results will probably be vacant until at least next year. But besides a few flashes, JHN has struggled to finish races, with five DNF’s on the year. He’s proven he can win in the lower series, but he needs the car to compete and to clean up the mistakes before he is a true race-win contender.
If one driver has seen their stock plummet since last year, it’s Corey LaJoie. After an impressive 2023 season, he’s followed it up with a disappointing 2024 campaign that has seen him outrun by his two rookie teammates and lose his ride for 2025. He was one lap away from victory in 2022 at Atlanta before contact with Chase Elliott sent him into the wall. He has experience compared to others on this list, and Spire is still waiting to be ready to compete for wins, but for LaJoie to one day win in Cup, he might need to go back to the lower series to prove he can win.
Zane Smith is in his first full-time Cup season. The 2022 Truck Series champion started the year terribly, with DNFs left, right, and center. Fast-forward to the summer stretch, and Smith has found his groove in Cup, with two top-10s, including a second-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway. Spire is probably a year or two away from being a true contender for wins, but if Smith continues this trajectory, he’ll be in the mix.
Ryan Preece has not had the Cup career he was hoping for. Throughout his two years at Stewart-Haas Racing, he has been the worst driver every season. Besides one race at Martinsville in 2023, where he won the pole, led the most laps, and won the first stage, he has struggled to find consistency and the pace to compete at the front. What puts him over Smith is that 2023 Martinsville race. If given the right car, he has shown he can compete up front.
If this list was made early in the season, Noah Gragson would be higher on the list. He was consistently inside the top 10 and made the 10 car look the best its been since 2020. He’s cooled off during the summer but has greatly improved from his disastrous rookie year last season. He’s been rewarded with a seat at Ford’s newest “Tier One” team, Front Row Motorsports next season, meaning his window to win races is just opening up.
Josh Berry has improved as the season has gone on. He’s been in contention to win a few short track races this year, such as New Hampshire and Iowa Speedway. With Bristol and Martinsville left on the schedule, Berry will be in contention for the top 10, and if cards fall the right way, he could be in a position to grab his first career win.
Todd Gilliland has had a quiet breakout season in 2024. He has improved to become a consistent top-20 contender and Front Row Motorsports lead driver. While he has no top-fives, he has led 121 laps, second most among this list, with the with the majority coming at superspeedways. FRM has excelled at the drafting tracks, with Gilliland leading the charge. With Daytona, Atlanta, and Talladega all left on the schedule, it’s not out of the question to see the No. 38 in victory lane this season.
There was no doubt as to who would take the No. 1 spot. Among all winless Cup drivers, Ty Gibbs leads in every category. His 321 laps led are more than winners like Joey Logano, William Byron, and Chase Elliott. In addition, he’s in the best car to win a race out of anyone on this list. He’s struggled during the summer, but if the 54 were to go to victory lane this year, no one would be surprised. Gibbs is due for his first win, and it can come sooner rather than later, earning him the number one spot on this list.
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