Ready for some Monday racing? Because it’s becoming more and more likely as rain engulfs the Dover area in Delaware. This rain presents us with major implications on this race on the betting side; as if it wasn’t already full of uncertain elements.
The betting environment of the Wurth 400 is already impacted heavily by data observed from the tire compound this weekend. We have severe tire wear and minimal rubber being laid down on this one-mile concrete surface.
Now, the lack of rubber on the surface becomes more of a problem as the rain will wash away any residue that the Xfinity Series laid down in their race on Saturday. To translate: be prepared for a chaotic, unpredictable race.
We certainly don’t want a replication of the 2022 Bristol night race or the 2022 Texas fall race where tire roulette dictated the outcome of each event, but–for different reasons–we could see something similar at Dover on Sunday (go ahead and face it; this event will be raced on Monday) due to the uncertain elements.
But, because of these elements, I have some longshot plays for your liking.
Let’s get right into it.
NASCAR Cup Series Wurth 400 Longshot Bets
Corey Lajoie: Top 10 Finish +2000 (FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesar’s Sportsbook)
Corey finished 18th last year at Dover and drives for the much-improved program in Spire. The performance is better in 2023, and LaJoie has four finishes of 16th or better in nine races this season.
If Corey hangs around the Top 20 throughout this race, then this is a solid bet. With the uncertain elements and potential for tire problems, AKA chaos, this is a formidable bet at the price it’s being offered.
This is a bet that has potential with or without chaos. I love the value offered by each of these books considering Barstool Sportsbook is offering this same bet at +850.
Tread lightly, but give it a shot.
Austin Cindric: Top Ford +2500 (Caesar’s Sportsbook)
The former Dover winner at the Xfinity Series level showed some promising numbers in practice on Saturday. I’m not sure how much stock to take from the session, but it can be a glimmer of hope to see some solid times on the board from Cindric on single-lap speed and five-lap averages.
Ford struggled here last year, and between Penske, Stewart-Haas, and Roush Fenway Keselowski, there’s been a major lack of consistency in performance week-to-week in 2023. Add the rain and tire concerns, and we’ve got the potential to hit on a toss-up type of driver to top the Ford department.
If this becomes a survival race, it might be a solid strategy to have some longshot manufacturer bets. If Austin runs around the Top 10, cashing this bet is very achievable.
Michael McDowell: Top Ford +5000 (Barstool Sportsbook)
This is not a McDowell track. Though he scored a modest P17 in this event last season, McDowell has struggled here over the years with several different teams.
With that being considered, we must consider the circumstances this weekend (similarly to our Cindric bet) and recognize that McDowell has many runs in 2023 right around the Top 10 including a P6 at Richmond.
I’m on the train of expecting a chaotic race. Chaos becomes an equalizer for drivers like McDowell. Tread lightly here, but take a chance at 50-1. Other books are offering this same bet around 30-1.