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Chase Elliott has had a difficult 2023 season for a myriad of reasons, many of which were self-inflicted. However, he led 47 laps last Sunday at Kansas, which is more laps than he had led the entire season up to that point. This got us thinking, will Chase Elliott win a race before this season ends?
The final races of the season are at Bristol, Texas, Talladega, the Charlotte Roval, Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami, Martinsville, and Phoenix. Elliott has won in either points or non-points events in his career on five of the eight race tracks on this list as follows: Bristol, Talladega, Charlotte Roval, Martinsville, and Phoenix. The other three race tracks on this list are Las Vegas, Texas, and Homestead-Miami, which are all intermediate tracks just like Kansas.
The one race on the rest of the schedule that Elliott has virtually no shot at winning is Phoenix. The reason for that is that the Championship 4 race has always been won by the driver who wins the drivers Championship ever since the beginning of the Championship 4 format in 2014.
Every single race on the calendar heading up to that race is a race that Elliott can win. Homestead-Miami is particularly interesting because of Elliott’s run at Kansas, which is the most comparable track to Homestead on the calendar. The Charlotte Roval is interesting because of Elliott’s history on road courses.
He also won at Talladega last fall, and he ran up front at Daytona at the end of the regular season. Elliott has tracks coming up he has, can, and will be in winning contention at.
Kyle Larson and William Byron are the two Cup Series drivers in the Playoffs at the moment. That means that they will likely be the ones getting the best equipment from Hendrick Motorsports. Does this mean Elliott is completely being pushed to the side at Hendrick Motorsports?
Elliott is still in the NASCAR’s Owners Playoffs, which is the standings that NASCAR pays directly to the owners for the rest of the season. As far as Hendrick Motorsports is concerned, they have three Playoff drivers.
Elliott is still going to get top equipment from Hendrick Motorsports for the rest of the season as long as he stays in the fight in the Owners Playoffs. A win for Elliott is bigger than just a win for the driver, it potentially means a higher payout for the race team at the end of the season. There is good reason for Hendrick Motorsports to continue to back Elliott.
All signs point to it being more than likely that Elliott can win a race before the season ends. However, this is the same speech people were giving when Elliott came back from injury and suspension. It seemed like a foregone conclusion to many that he would win a race to make the Playoffs, but he failed to do so.
With that in mind, confidence in Elliott winning a race is as low as it ever has been to many because he has not won a race yet. Then again, Kansas was the most time he has spent up front as he has in any race this season.
Ultimately, Elliott can definitely win a race before the season comes to an end. However, it may be shortsighted to guarantee he wins a race. Then again, he is always a threat to win week-in and week-out.
