What’s Happening?
This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix Raceway. Despite some feeling that the start of a new season is low stakes, Phoenix presents teams with a chance to see what they have and where they might need to improve should they make the Championship Four. But just how much does Phoenix’s Spring race factor into the Championship?
A Testing Ground for the Championship
Prior to the introduction of the NASCAR Chase or Playoff system, every race weekend was the same: a new challenge with a new task. However, with the implications of a playoff in which the last race is the most important, having the ability to get laps on that track in race trim is valuable for any team chasing a title.
 During Homestead’s time as the final race of the playoffs, the track served an interesting challenge as it was almost unlike any other on the circuit. All three series only went to Miami once a year. 
However, when NASCAR moved the playoffs to Phoenix in 2020, it created a new opportunity for  teams. For the first time in the playoff era, two series, the Cup and Xfinity series, would head to the  championship-hosting track prior to the championship race. 
This year, like most seasons, teams and drivers will try to figure out as much as they can about what works best at Phoenix in hopes that they return in November with championship aspirations.
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How Does the Eventual Champion Perform in the Spring?
While we know teams will be digging for any nano-second of speed this weekend both in practice, qualifying, and on race day, is there anything past spring races can tell us about the eventual Cup Series Champion?
There is no real correlation on where the eventual champion finishes in the spring race. For example, of the five spring NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix since 2020, the eventual champion has not won a race.
Here’s a look at some stats from the Phoenix Championship era covering how Cup Series Champions fared at Phoenix that Spring and who walked away as the winner of the tracks spring race:
2020
- Phoenix Spring Winner: Joey Logano
- Champion: Chase Elliott – Spring Start: 1st | Finish: 7th
2021
- Phoenix Spring Winner: Martin Truex Jr
- Champion: Kyle Larson – Spring Start: 2nd | Finish: 7th
2022
- Phoenix Spring Winner: Chase Briscoe
- Champion: Joey Logano – Spring Start: 10th | Finish: 8th
2023
- Phoenix Spring Winner: William Byron
- Champion: Ryan Blaney – Spring Start: 8th | Finish: 2nd
2024
- Phoenix Spring Winner: Christopher Bell
- Champion: Joey Logano – Spring Start: 23rd | Finish: 34th
The eventual champion averages an 11.6 start and 8.8 finish in the spring race. In three out of the five races, the spring race winner made the Championship Four—this stat becomes all the more interesting when you discuss the debate that Christopher Bell perhaps should have made the 2024 Championship Four.
This data is mostly all over the place; while most finished well, four of five drivers also had a great start to the race. What it does say is that you don’t have to win the Spring race to win the Championship.
However, one new factor this Spring at Phoenix will affect the NASCAR Cup Series championship, should it play out.
Short Tracks, the Next Gen Car, Passing, and Tire Wear
Since the introduction of the NASCAR Next Gen car, passing, or the lack of passing, has been a major factor in results on NASCAR’s short tracks. Of course, this inability to find passing lanes is reflected at Phoenix and the Championship race.
For example, last November, Joey Logano made a daring move for the lead following a restart with 54 to go. Ultimately, he found himself in the driver’s seat for the rest of the race with little to no realistic threat besides teammate Ryan Blaney.
These passing issues have led NASCAR and Goodyear to introduce a softer tire, often referred to as the option tire, that falls off as the race goes on. NASCAR has yet to use the option tire at Phoenix, but it made its points debut at a similar short track, Richmond, and its playoff debut at Martinsville last fall.
This spring, NASCAR is introducing the option tire to Phoenix in limited quantities. Much like Richmond last fall, teams will have six “primary” tire sets to use during the race alongside two sets of “option” tires. If this tire creates the on-track action NASCAR wants, expect to see it as the primary tire when the Cup Series returns for the Championship.
NASCAR will use an option tire for the spring Phoenix race. Teams will have two sets to use during the race. If that softer tire works, NASCAR will make it the primary tire for the championship race (they’re not going to have two different compounds for a race that important).
— Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) January 22, 2025
This tire could be a game-changer for the championship race, so the data teams collect while using their two sets of option tires this weekend will be extremely important.
While the stats may not historically carry over to the fall, this year, the spring race at Phoenix may be as important as ever to a team’s championship hopes.
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