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Welcome back to the Greatest NASCAR Bettor in the Universe’s program here at Daily Downforce. I’m here to highlight some of my favorite bets for today’s United Rentals Workers United 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
It’s been an up-and-down start to the season on the betting side. Heartbreak from the Clash and the Daytona 500 featuring my Kyle Busch bets put us in a slight hole to start the season.
After a disappointing weekend at Fontana, we had a monster Sunday at Las Vegas, nailing several big-time bets in the Pennzoil 400.
While the panic about downforce reduction, Hendrick’s potential violations, and Kevin Harvick mania have taken the weekend by storm, I think we will see a much more predictable race at Phoenix Raceway this afternoon.
We know Kyle Larson has quite the rocket ship. The betting markets took notice and smartly have put the consumers in a tough spot. With the reluctance to take Kyle Larson to win at a 3.5-1 price tag on most books (congrats if you grabbed him pre-qualifying), we’re somewhat forced to find some other value across the board that can solidify a profit.
I think I have some answers for ya.
So without further ado..
Let’s get right into it.
The proof is in the pudding for Kevin Harvick. To add on to his astounding Phoenix resume (9 wins, 19 Top 5’s, and 29 Top 10’s in 40 starts), Harvick seemed very happy in our rare extended practice on Friday and had excellent long-run speed.
I hate that the consumers did such a great job and chopped these lines down heading into the weekend, but I still believe there’s value in a 10-1 victory and a 1.5-1 Top 5. I think Harvick has a top-3 racecar this weekend.
If there’s anybody that has a great shot to beat the Kyle Larson spaceship, it’s Harvick.
Even though Las Vegas doesn’t necessarily correlate to Phoenix, it seems like two of the best cars this weekend—like last weekend—are the #5 and the #24. Byron’s car appears to be stout on the long run once again.
Byron didn’t fire off super well, but as the laps ticked, his times were within a tenth of Kyle Larson and 2nd on the speed chart in 15, 20, and 25-lap averages.
The speed appears close enough to take a stab at Benjamin Bill for the 2nd week in a row.
I’m disappointed in Chase’s qualifying run, as I bet on him at 20-1 before the session with the prediction that he would qualify well. I also got in at +110 for a Top 10.
I’m also surprised that the books faded him pretty considerably after the session as he boasted strong, consistent speeds in practice. I think Briscoe, who finished 1st and 4th in his two Phoenix starts in 2022, will be a factor today.
He may not have a winning car, but he statistically has had one of the best pit crews in the sport to start the season. If Chase stays in the mix and we get some late-race drama, the #14 guys could get Briscoe some clutch track position when the money’s on the line.
I love the Top-10 bet, and I like the to-win bet.
If you’re scared of the potential of Kyle Larson dominating 90% of the race and losing the win in the final 10%, this is a great alternative bet.
Stage 1 is only 60 laps. The fuel window is in the 92-98 lap range. If Larson takes off and we don’t see a caution in the first 60 laps, I wouldn’t expect any green-flag pitstops.
Drivers that start up front typically gobble up the opening stage here at Phoenix, as in both races last year a top-3 qualifier won the opening stage (Byron: P3, Logano: P1).
I expect drivers to take it easy early as everybody will be more on edge with the aero package. As long as we steer clear of early tire troubles, I feel really good about Larson winning Stage 1.
Additionally, I would consider holding out until Barstool Sportsbook releases its stage-winning lines to see if we can get something of better value (maybe around +350).
