Rather than leading to the pick through the article, lets start with it up front. I’m betting on Ross Chastain to finish Top 10. I already bet Ross to win, and on my Action Network profile I added Ross Top 3 this afternoon. I really wasn’t planning to ladder Ross like this when I started the week. But now that I have actually run my Top 10 model though and heard from some other folks I respect a lot, I can’t ignore that the data tells me this is a strong bet.
Ross has finished four for six in the Top 10 at the six most relevant cases in the Gen 7 car. Those races being three events at Vegas, two races at Kansas, and Coke 600 at Charlotte. Over those six races he has logged 88.58% of the laps inside the Top 10. Only Kyle Larson has a higher percentage of laps inside the Top 10 at 88.72%.
In addition to running in the Top 10 during the race, Chastain is finishing well. Chastain should have been at least five for six inside the Top 10. Unforutnately for Ross at last year’s Coke 600 he got damage late while running near the front. While he managed to finish the race, he plummeted down the leaderboard on the final restart. In fact, he could have been six for six but for some bad luck at Vegas earlier this year. At Vegas he finished 12th. I have him seventh in incident adjusted speed for that race though. He was also inside the Top 10 for 95% of the laps at Las Vegas.
Overall if we look at the other drivers who have completed similar numbers of laps inside the Top 10 and have similar numbers of Top 10 finishes at relevant tracks, they are all much shorter. So, I’m very comfortable with the -138 Betway is offering. I would be comfortable all the way to -150. So you can make this bet at the Kambi books, Bet365, and HardRock if you don’t have access to Betway. I bet 1.38u to win 1. If you are taking the shorter odds I would increase my bet to keep the winnings at 1u.