Christopher Bell has a chance to join an elite list of NASCAR Cup Series drivers this weekend in Las Vegas. However, winning four races in a row is easier said than done, and the odds don’t exactly favor the No. 20 winning yet again this weekend.
When Bell walked away victorious in Phoenix this weekend, the driver of the No. 20 was the first three-peat NASCAR Cup Series winner since Kyle Larson in 2021. Larson won ten races that season and had two three-race win streaks, yet fell short of four wins in a row.
A four-peat is not necessarily uncommon in NASCAR history. However, as cars have become increasingly similar, drivers have experienced these hot streaks. For example, since the introduction of the Next Gen car, or Gen Seven car, in 2022, Bell is the first driver to win three races in a row.
Most fans and drivers consider the Next Gen car to be the sport’s first “spec” car, yet the Car of Tomorrow, partially introduced in 2007, was technically NASCAR’s first foray into this concept. Since 2000 and prior to Bell’s current streak, nine drivers have won three races in a row, yet only one driver, Jimmie Johnson, has increased this number to four.
When talking about winning four races in a row, a commonly used statistic is the phrase “modern era.” This term set a cut line for statistics in 1972; that season saw several modern overhauls of the sport. Most importantly, it cut the number of races a season down from 48 to 31.
Prior to the modern era, winning streaks and massive winning seasons, such as Richard Petty’s 27 wins in 48 races in a 1967 campaign, were commonplace. That being said, collecting data from 1972 onwards sets a more defined standard for records in a changing sport.
In NASCAR’s Modern Era, eight drivers have won four straight races. However, this has not happened since Jimmie Johnson last did so in 2007, the year the Gen Four and Gen Five (COT) cars shared the track.
If Bell wins this weekend in Las Vegas, he will join the likes of fellow Modern Era four-in-a-row winners:
Only one of these drivers, Harry Gant, is not in the NASCAR Hall of Fame; only two of these drivers, Gant and Mark Martin, did not win a NASCAR Cup Series title.
The list of four-in-a-row winners is elite but short. So, why is it so short?
Since Johnson won at Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas, and Phoenix, four of the last five races, in 2007, six drivers have won three races in a row:
These drivers all fell short in their attempt at four in a row, some much closer than others:
Some were more brutal than others, such as Larson crashing on the last lap at Pocono, which handed the win to his teammate Alex Bowman. In total, of the 29 three-in-a-row winners in NASCAR’s modern era, eight have gone on to win a fourth, which is good for just 28%.
But, when it comes to a generational talent like Bell, a win lies in his hands rather than history. So, what does Bell look like in Las Vegas?
Entering this weekend, Bell has made ten starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In total, he has three top fives and five top ten finishes; all but one of his top tens were in the Next Gen Era.
While he has yet to win at LVMS, that does not mean he is slow at the track; three times, in 2022, 2023, and 2024, Bell has started on the Pole at the track. He is also coming off his hands-down best performance at Las Vegas last fall, in which he sat on the pole, led 155 laps, and finished second.
One historical trend that does not favor Bell historically is Toyota’s performance at LVMS. Since entering the top level of NASCAR in 2007, in 25 starts at LVMS, a Toyota has won only five races. None of these five Toyota wins at LVMS have come in the Next Gen era, with the last being Denny Hamlin’s win in the fall of 2021.
But, once again, history may not factor into Sunday’s race. Bell has been on a hot streak for ages, and he could be the man to knock Jimmie Johnson off his 19-year pedestal.
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