Let me present you with three driver profiles. All three drivers are with the consensus top team for their respective manufacture, but none are considered the top driver for their team. 2022 Stats at all six 1.5-mile tri-ovals:
Driver A: 4 lead lap finishes, 4 Top 10s, 2 Top 5s, 1 Top 3, 1 win, 123 Laps Led, 71 Fastest Laps
Driver B: 3 lead lap finishes, 2 Top 10s, 1 Top 5, no Top 3 or wins, 83 Laps Led, 67 Fastest Laps
Driver C: 4 lead lap finishes, 4 Top 10s, 3 Top 5s, 1 Top 1, no wins, 81 Laps Led, 76 Fastest Laps
Which driver would you prefer?
What if I told you that Driver A missed one of the 2022 races? If you only look at the races they started the laps led and fastest laps statistics changes to look like this:
Driver A: 123 Laps Led, 71 Fastest Laps (No Change, that’s the point)
Driver B: 44 Laps Led, 40 Fastest Laps
Driver C: 81 Laps Led, 73 Fastest Laps
Now what if I told you could bet Driver A to win this weekend’s race at +2200, but the best price you could get Driver C is +1400 and the best price on Driver B is +1000. If you could only make one bet and wanted to maximize return, which driver would you bet to win? Would you assume one of those prices is wrong?
If you were following along with the stats I was posting on Twitter last night, you may have guessed that Driver A is Alex Bowman. Filling out this group, Driver B is Ryan Blaney and Driver C is Christopher Bell.
I already wrote up Bowman on Wednesday for a Top 10 at +110, which is still available at Barstool and BetRivers, but now I’m loading up for more on the #48. Maybe it’s because he is the fourth best driver at Hendrick Motorsports, but it seems the world is always sleeping on Bowman. Let’s dig into the data on why I’m not this weekend.
As we can see from the chart above, last year Bowman led the third most percentage of laps at 1.5-mile tri-ovals overall when considering the number of laps run in races he started. But it’s important to note that on lap 98 of the 334-lap race at Texas Bowman had an incident that junked his car. The incident put him multiple laps down and ultimately sidelined him for five races. Kansas is also the most similar track to Vegas, particularly Kansas 2 since Goodyear is bringing the same tire compound to Las Vegas as it did to Kansas 2. So, while data from Charlotte and Texas does matter, the most relevant data is from the races at Las Vegas and Kansas. With that in mind let’s look at what happens if we remove Charlotte and Texas from the data set.
When looking at just Las Vegas and Kansas races that he ran, Bowman now leads the field in percentage of laps run as the leader. In absolute laps led he has closed the gap between him and Ross Chastain to just 29 laps, and again, that’s with Bowman having missed the opportunity to lead any of the 267 laps at the second Las Vegas race.
In this modified data set Bowman spent 82.8% of the laps he could have run inside the Top 10 and 49.26% of the possible laps running inside the Top 5. This makes him the Cup Series leader in Top 10 and Top 5 percentage for the most relevant races. He is also second in percentage of laps run inside the Top 3, just a few percentage points behind Ross Chastain. The picture that emerges is that outside of the Texas race, where he just had a terrible day, Bowman was not just good at the 1.5-mile tri-ovals, he was really good at them.
Moving to data that is not as predictive as the 2022 1.5-mile tri-oval data, but nevertheless still matters, if we look at last week’s race at Auto Club we see that Bowman had a strong start to the 2023 season. At Auto Club Bowman led 16 laps, which was 8% of the laps in the race. He also spent 143 laps (71.5%) running inside the Top 10, 63 laps (31.5%) running inside the Top 5, and 27 laps (13.5%) running inside the Top 3. He had an average running position of 7.48, good for fifth best. Clearly the 48 Team still has plenty of speed.
All things considered it simply doesn’t make any sense that Bowman is priced where he is. He had an incredibly strong 2022 season at the most relevant tracks and has started out the 2023 season strong. The best prices available on his HMS teammates are +800 (Larson), +1300 (Elliott), and +1600 (Bryon) to win. The best prices on Top 3 bets are +235, +375, and +500. This trend continues through the Top 5 and Top 10 prices. While there is no doubt that Bowman is the “worst” driver at HMS, at 1.5-mile tracks he has proven his abilities and this disparity in pricing doesn’t have a rational explanation.
As already mentioned above, the prices on the two drivers, Ryan Blaney and Chistopher Bell, from my initial driver comparison are also much shorter than Bowman’s. These three drivers had very similar performance on the 1.5-mile tri-ovals in 2022. Blaney and Bell also had similar speed to Bowman this past weekend before they both had incidents which took them out of contention. Once again, the disparity in pricing simply doesn’t make sense to me.
At the end of the day Hendrick Motorsports wasn’t the best at qualifying on the 1.5-mile tri-ovals in 2022. So, if you want to wait on Bowman to see how he practices I get it, but I don’t see his prices getting longer and so I’m willing to get my bets in now to ensure I don’t miss out on him at these long shot prices if he comes out and qualifies well. I have a total of 2.4 units down on Bowman this weekend spread out as follows:
.4u to win +2200 to win 8.8u – Barstool Sportsbook (bet to +2000)
.4u to finish Top 3 +650 to win 2.6u – Betway (bet to +600)
.6u to finish Top 5 +325 to win 1.95u – Betway (bet to +300)
1u to finish Top 10 +110 to win 1.1u – Barstool Sportsbook (bet to +100)
On February 17, Ubisoft released a trailer that confirmed that NASCAR would be included in The Crew Motorfest’s next season update. Details were limited at the time, but in a press release issued today, Ubisoft revealed the full details of the update ahead of its March 4 launch.
Ubisoft says drafting will affect car speed and help save fuel, implying that drafting will be a huge factor in the game, at least with these cars. You can check out this and much more on Ubisoft’s official post linked below
Earlier this Tuesday, the official The Crew Motorfest account clarified confusion around the NASCAR bundles. The Crew Credit (CC) bundles only include cosmetic team liveries, not additional cars. The 3 base Next Gen cars (Ford Mustang Dark Horse, Toyota Camry XSE, and Chevrolet ZL1) are part of the free Season 9 update and can be purchased separately.
Mitch Rasmussen, NASCAR’s Senior Director of Interactive, said in the press release:
We’re excited to bring our iconic brand to life in The Crew Motorfest. This collaboration represents another important step in our strategy to bring NASCAR into the digital spaces and places where next generation fans spend their time, giving players new ways to interact with the culture and communities they love.
The content arrives as part of Year 3 Season 9 and is officially licensed by NASCAR. You can watch the first trailer and learn more in the article linked below
What do you think about this? Let us know your opinion on Discord or X. Don’t forget that you can also follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.
Four road courses on the schedule, and somehow that’s enough to spark one of the biggest debates in the garage. After recent comments from Brad Keselowski questioning the business value of road racing, the conversation has picked up serious steam. Is NASCAR leaning too far into it, or is the current balance about right?
There are valid points on both sides, from sponsorship realities to fan traditions to competitive diversity. Some tracks have gained traction. Others have struggled. The question isn’t just whether road courses belong, but how many make sense within a 36-race season. It’s less about extremes and more about direction. And with future schedule changes always looming, this debate probably isn’t settled anytime soon.
Watch Also:
Corey Day’s run-in with Connor Zilisch at Circuit of the Americas became one of the most discussed incidents from Saturday’s race, even drawing a response from Denny Hamlin as well, who this week talked about his support for Zilisch.
During the race, Zilisch dealt with brake trouble on his No. 1 Chevrolet but worked his way forward from the rear of the field, advancing from P29 to P4 in the closing laps. With five laps remaining, he engaged in a battle with Hendrick Motorsports driver Corey Day as they exited Turn 2, holding the outside line. But as they contested the position, Day moved up behind him, contact occurred, and Zilisch spun off course to finish the race in P21.
After the contact, frustrated, Connor Zilisch initially referred to Day as an “absolute hack” on his radio, describing the clash as part of the latter’s racing pattern. But the JR Motorsports driver later tempered his comments, simply saying he expects an apology from the young Hendrick Motorsports driver.
Given that Zilisch declined to escalate the situation, on the latest episode of his Actions Detrimental podcast, Hamlin credited him for calmly managing his response after the race, saying,
“Zillich was smart about this. He in his interview, he’s like, “I looked over at him thinking, come on over here. Come apologize.” And he said he just looked at him with a stare like, I don’t know what it is with these guys. Why, Why can’t they… youth?”
However, he questioned Day’s failure to issue an immediate apology. In fact, he said he was “floored” by Corey Day’s reaction, which involved staring at a frustrated Zilisch rather than apologizing.
The No. 11 JGR driver also raised questions about how Hendrick Motorsports evaluates developing drivers. Organizations invest with the expectation of returns measured in wins and titles, but when a driver continues to make visible mistakes, fans and especially other drivers will start to scrutinize. Hamlin pointed to the balance between development and production, asking how long it would hold.
The COTA incident was not the first time Day’s racing antics were questioned. Last week, during the Atlanta race, Day was involved in a multi-car crash on lap five after attempting a three-wide move that resulted in contact with Ryan Sieg. The move triggered a chain reaction that collected several cars.
Sieg responded over team radio, questioning both the decision and Day’s presence in the series.
Hamlin argued that drivers are allowed to make mistakes as part of growth. At teams with front-running equipment and title ambitions, time frames are shorter. But he questioned whether Day faces a deadline by season’s end or whether the assessment extends into the following year.
In Day’s case, results have not offset the incidents that have drawn attention. Hamlin referenced Kyle Larson as an example, noting that aggressive driving can lead to contact as well as wins.
Do you agree with Hamlin’s take? Let us know your opinion on Discord or X. Don’t forget that you can also follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.
