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Welcome back to the Greatest NASCAR Bettor in the Universe’s newest edition of ‘Best Bets’ heading into the most appropriate weekend to bet. We’re hittin’ the strip in Vegas to lock in all sorts of plays for this weekend’s triple-header monster at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
After long hours of thorough scanning across various sportsbooks, diligent studying of all sorts of data, and scurrying around to lock in my favorite plays of the weekend, I am more than happy to deliver my favorite value plays to you ahead of the weekend.
For video content where I discuss all of the bets you’re about to indulge in and more, check out my live stream, DALESCENTER, for a much more immersive motorsport betting experience.
In this edition, I decided to lump in my favorite value plays from each NASCAR national series heading into the weekend. Rather than write separate pieces exclusive to each series, I figure the level of convenience for your sake would be optimal for an all-in-one article.
So—without further ado—let’s get right into it.
A part of me will live and die by Corey Heim’s performance this weekend. I laid the hammer on Heim as I got +1400 outright and +340 for a Top 3. While that boat has come and gone, I still think these are strong value bets ahead of Friday night.
Heim moves from Kyle Busch Motorsports to Tricon Garage after a 2-win, part-time campaign in 2022. While the scenery is different, I don’t see much change in the level of competitiveness out of Heim and his truck.
Toyota lost ThorSport and KBM after ’22, so most of their eggs are in the basket of Tricon Garage (formerly the Ford team of David Gilliland Racing) to lead the way for the manufacturer in the series. Heim gains a very accomplished crew chief in Scott Zipadelli who is an intermediate-racetrack goliath in the Truck Series (15 wins since 2016; 10 on tracks 1.5 miles or greater).
I think the books are undervaluing Heim like crazy for Friday night. Sure; Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain are racing, but the uncertainties behind their teams (KBM moves to Chevy, Niece Motorsports somewhat inconsistent on this track type in 2022) are enough for me to feel confident in Heim’s chances on Friday night.
Ty Majeski returns to ThorSport Racing with a new manufacturer, but the same crew chief in Joe Shear Jr. This combo was excellent on similar racetracks in 2022 and, most notably, waxed the field at Homestead late in the season.
Both of these lines aren’t super surprising considering the aforementioned star power. Plus, John Hunter Nemechek is also racing in the Tricon Garage #17 Toyota. So there are many heavy hitters Ty’s got to beat. But considering how lightning-fast this team was on the intermediates in 2022, I think Ty is absolutely worth a play for some action.
Once again; I know we’ve got a couple of Cup guys in the field, but did we forget that Custer had an absolute rocket ship last week? The finish doesn’t add up because he suffered a flat right front tire and accumulated too much damage to be competitive.
I expect Custer to be super competitive again. The fact that Caesar’s is giving us plus money on the top 5 and the top 3 is a dream. Those bets are where the emphasis lies. The +700 if he wins is just a potential cherry on top.
Okay; these lines are nothing short of insane to me. I’m not recommending you hammer these bets, but Brett had a top 10 last weekend (P9). He was competitive. Last week proved that this team might be quite the dark horse in 2023.
So, for the books to value him in this range is remarkably wild to me. Reminder: Moffitt and the AM Racing Team have a technical alliance with Stewart Haas Racing. The cars are gonna be solid. Take the value, but tread lightly.
This is a big-time sleeper bet that is certainly more saturated on other books. The 11-1 on BetMGM is insanely good value for a driver and team that finished 7th at Fontana last week and showed legitimate promise in overall speed toward the end of 2022.
It’s more likely that we’ll see Logano or Blaney carry the torch for the Fords on Sunday, but you can’t count out a driver with an emerging program who has an excellent Las Vegas resume (1 win, 8 Top 5’s, 12 Top 10’s in 19 starts).
Logano and Blaney are floating around +170 and +250 on most books, respectively. In today’s NASCAR Cup Series, those lines represent too much risk and not enough reward. Let’s ride with Brad K.
Once again, BetMGM is giving us some enhanced value as other books are hovering around the +700 mark for Bubba to lead the way for Toyota. Bubba was simply way too fast at similar tracks to close out 2022, and the 23XI program made some monumental gains throughout the entire campaign last season.
I’d lean towards taking Truex and Bubba in this category. While Truex is floating around +300, Bubba’s +900 is simply too irresistible to pass up.
