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Welcome back to the Greatest NASCAR Betting Program in the History of the Universe. We’re locked in heading into Bristol dirt with, potentially, more bets to come as the weekend evolves.
DALESCENTER just finished up, and you have plenty of time to catch up on the in-depth betting analysis and all of my logged bets ahead of the weekend for the Craftsman Truck Series and the NASCAR Cup Series.
We’re wasting no time.
Let’s get right into it.
Yes; Ben Rhodes has been spectacular here in two starts on virtually two different kinds of racetracks (super dry and daytime in 2021, wet and nighttime in 2022). But this is a system play; a percentage play in my mind.
Joey Logano ran this race in ’22 and finished 6th. He wasn’t a huge factor in the battle for the win while Ben Rhodes was the class of the field and reigned victoriously. But if you’re gonna give me this line for the ’22 Cup Champion vs a truck regular, it’s hammer time.
No disrespect to Rhodes at all. He’s a superb talent. But as I said earlier, this is a percentage play; the chances of Rhodes beating the reigning Cup Champion head-to-head two years in a row are slim in my book. Plus, Rhodes had Rich Lushes as his crew chief over the course of both Bristol dirt races. While Rhodes proved to us he’s a great dirt racer in this series, that truck in ’22 was a hot rod. Maybe we don’t get the same success for Rhodes with the changes at ThorSport.
Additionally, Logano is driving the #66 truck which will serve as a teammate to Rhodes this weekend. So we’re talking about a Cup Hall of Famer in the same equipment as Ben? With a year of experience in this race under his belt? Yep; I’ll take my chances with Joey in this one.
I think a Cup regular wins this race. I think confidently that Byron, Briscoe, or Logano will reign supreme on Saturday night. But because of the Cup regulars, we have opportunities down the board to grab some enhanced value in case chaos becomes the theme of the event.
Kligerman hopped on the Garage Guys NASCAR Podcast with me and Garage Guy Chase this offseason and confidently projected that at some point in 2022, he would be victorious at Bristol. While I don’t project it, chaos becomes the name of the game in Truck Series competition from time to time, so it’s worth a sprinkle to grab Kligerman at 30-1.
While that 30-1 deserves a minuscule play, heavier plays should be considered for the Top 5 and Top 3 plays, as Kligerman’s two results here in trucks are 8th in ’21 and 4th in ’22. I like Kligerman as one of my favorite alternatives to these Cup regulars on Friday night; the value is there.
Fine; I’ll acknowledge that this isn’t a “Best Bet”, but I’m for the people, and the people want flier plays. This constitutes quite appropriately as the flier you were hoping to see.
Kaden is a young, raw talent in motorsports. He has limited starts in NASCAR, but has a solid dirt resume. With controlled pitstops and potential chaos, you give advantages to drivers and teams such as Kaden and Roper Racing.
Don’t hammer this bet. Tread lightly and hope for chaos.
It’s not often that DraftKings helps us in the matchup department, but this is a slightly better line than what you’ll see on Caesar’s. Suarez is 2-0 against Truex in 2 Bristol Dirt appearances.
Truex was good here in ’21 but was a complete nonfactor in ’22. The track we will see this weekend will certainly be more similar to last year rather than the inaugural race. Suarez has been a factor in winning this race in both appearances, and while I’m unsure about betting on him to win, I will expect him to win this matchup on Sunday.
It feels like everything that can go wrong for Martin does go wrong. It’s not a bad lean to ride against him until he breaks through these troubling times.
Another matchup where the former is 2-0 against the latter. Ross has struggled here in both starts and obtained track position through strategy last year before blowing an engine.
On the flip side, other than a brief spin, Bowman ran a solid, clean race en route to a P6. I don’t see Ross beating Alex on talent or pure speed. Don’t ask me about the Hendrick penalties; I believe they bare no impact to the #48 team’s performance this weekend. Give me Alex all day, but I wouldn’t bet this any lower than -140.
