What’s Happening?

Shane Van Gisbergen has taken to NASCAR quite well in his first full-time season, but is it enough to warrant a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series? His road course racing prowess might be enough to jump into the Cup Series; however, today, we focus specifically on his performance on ovals, the biggest hurdle he had to clear coming into 2025.

• Shane Van Gisbergen burst onto the NASCAR scene in 2023. The three-time Australian Supercars Champion won the Chicago Street Race driving the No. 91 car for Trackhosue as a part of Project 91, and he later signed a development contract with Trackhouse to move to NASCAR full-time.
• In 2024, he joined Kaulig Racing in the No. 97 car through an alliance with Trackhouse. So far, he has nailed three road course wins but has yet to record his first win on an oval.
• While more road courses have been added to NASCAR in recent years, the Cup Series still competes primarily on ovals, 31 out of 36 races to be exact. As a result, oval prowess is paramount to success at the Cup level, and a lack of oval success has hampered many road course aces who tried their hand at NASCAR.

How Has SVG Done on Ovals?

SVG’s overall stats are somewhat skewed by his success on road courses this season. However, he has been decent on oval tracks this season, especially considering he’s entering many of these venues for the first time with very little practice time.

The biggest thing to note is that his average finish is better than his average start, showing that he learns and gets better as the race progresses. He’s finished better than he started in nine out of 15 oval races (60%).

His Cup Series showings have been less stellar. He finished 28th at Talladega and he Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. In fairness, the Coca-Cola 600 was rain-shortened.

How Does He Compare?

SVG’s closest comparison in the Cup Series is fellow Supercar ace Marcos Ambrose, whose first full-time Xfinity Series season came in 2007. While Ambrose had 22 Truck Series races of experience the year prior, and equipment was probably not quite as good as SVG, comparing how both have done to this point in their development is worthwhile. Here is how Ambrose performed in his first 15 Xfinity Series oval races.

That’s not too far off from SVG. Remember that Ambrose had more practice and those 22 Truck Series starts, meaning Ambrose had significantly more track time than SVG. However, despite the increased experience, Ambrose never quite figured out ovals all the way during his career. While he did record 34 career Cup Series top-10s on ovals, all of his NASCAR wins came on road courses, five in the Xfinity Series and two in the Cup Series.

Juan Pablo Montoya, another driver who came to NASCAR from road racing, Formula One and IndyCar specifically, was a similar story. All of his NASCAR wins were road course races, but he did manage to record a top-10 points finish in 2009, along with 49 Cup Series oval top-10 finishes. Montoya was arguably the best prepared for ovals out of the three drivers because he had six IndyCar oval wins, including the 2000 Indianapolis 500, before joining NASCAR.

Is SVG Ready?

The bottom line is that regardless of how much experience these drivers gain on ovals at the top level, it doesn’t compare to the level of experience most NASCAR drivers have. Cup Series drivers have competed on oval tracks their entire lives, and they have this kind of racing as their specialty. It’s the same reason guys like SVG do well on road courses; he has more experience since they’ve been his primary discipline his entire life.

Expecting SVG to be among the top oval track racers in NASCAR is unrealistic, especially in year one, and the best teams can ask of him is continued improvement. With his road course skills, he can easily win a race to lock a team into the Playoffs, which might be enough to earn a Cup Series ride after all.

He is getting better on ovals as time goes on, and Montoya and Ambrose’s examples show that SVG will likely continue to improve. However, he may never fully master it, which he doesn’t necessarily have to do to earn a Cup Series ride if he remains a good road racer.

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