How Can Alex Bowman Make the 2026 Chase?

What’s Happening?

Alex Bowman is back in the NASCAR Cup Series sooner than many expected, after missing the entirety of March and almost this weekend’s race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Bowman, who was dealing with a vertigo diagnosis, first felt symptoms during the race at Circuit of the Americas, where he parked the car mid-race. Substitute driver Myatt Snider stepped in to complete the remaining laps.

Bowman then sat out four races during recovery. Anthony Alfredo filled in at Phoenix, while Justin Allgaier took over at Las Vegas, Darlington, and Martinsville, and had been set to run at Bristol before Bowman’s return was confirmed.

A Hole to Climb Out of

Back behind the wheel, Bowman finds himself in a bind. He returns ranked 36th among full-time drivers with 23 points and 19 races left before the Chase cutoff. The opening stretch had already put him on the back foot, with three finishes outside the top 20.

Early crashes had put him behind to start the year, and his exit at COTA left him at the foot of the table after three races. Missing four races only deepened the hole, leaving him 144 points behind 16th-place Daniel Suarez.

First, at Daytona International Speedway, Bowman qualified sixth and finished Stage 1 in ninth before being swept into a 20-car incident on Lap 124 of Stage 2. The damage ended his race, leaving him 40th.

Then, at Atlanta Motor Speedway, he started 36th, worked to 26th by the end of Stage 1, and reached 15th by the end of Stage 2. Despite showing pace in traffic and ranking well in restart metrics, execution issues and handling problems held him back, and he finished 23rd, one lap down.

Back at COTA, Bowman started 16th and finished Stage 1 in seventh. By the end of Stage 2, as symptoms set in, he dropped to 34th. On Lap 71 of 95, he finally exited the car, bringing an early end to his day. The opening run left him chasing the field, and the missed races pushed him further down the order.

What Can Bowman Do?

With 19 races left, the numbers leave little room for him to breathe.

The 16th-place cut line in recent seasons has hovered around 577 points, which translates to more than 22 points per race for a driver running the full schedule. Those totals can come from finishes such as 15th with no stage points, 25th with 10 stage points, or 35th with 20 stage points.

But in Bowman’s case, he does not have that margin. To reach the same mark after missing races, he would need to average about 29 points per race over the remaining 19 events starting at Bristol.

Besides, under the current format, wins no longer serve as a direct ticket into the playoffs.

However, they can still help him move the needle. In 2026, a victory carries 15 more points than in 2025, which can offer him a path to regain ground through results at the front.

What Stands in His Way?

A waiver stands as a key piece of the puzzle. Bowman is expected to receive a Chase waiver to remain eligible for the championship after missing races due to vertigo. Hendrick Motorsports has indicated it will request one, and such waivers for medical reasons have been standard practice.

Yet, even with that safety net, the task ahead remains steep for him. Time lost cannot be reclaimed, and the standings do not wait.

So, he will have to win as many races as possible. And if not able to win, at least finish at the front of the pack to accumulate as many points as possible. Only then will he be able to match the competition that lies ahead.

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