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So up front I’m going to state that this week’s early best bet is different. Why? Its an Xfinity Series, rather than Cup Series bet. The odds this weekend for the Cup Series race are simply so tight that I can’t find an angle that I want to bet on before practice and qualifying. There are a number of cup drivers and bets that I’m eyeing. But, I simply don’t feel strong enough about any of them to take the plunge before we see cars on track. So, with that out of the way, lets get to my normal lead, some information about this weekend’s track.
Watkins Glen is a road course with two primary configurations. Both NASCAR events this weekend will run on the 2.454-mile long “short course.” The short course features primarily right hand turns, with only one major left hand turn. The Glen is one of the two “traditional” road courses on the NASCAR schedule. NASCAR has held an annual event at the track since 1986 with the exception of 2020 which was moved out of New York due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Glen is perhaps the fastest of the road courses on the NASCAR schedule. Despite its higher speed, it also tends to be a little more predictable. Surprise winners are the exception here. So we want to focus on drivers who are showing consistent speed. This means speed on both on road courses as a whole and historically here at Watkins Glen. So, with that in mind, lets get to the bet.
Allgaier has been the most consistent regular Xfinity driver this year at road courses. He has finished in the Top 5 in four of six races at road/street courses this year. That includes a fifth place finish last week at the Indy Road Course. He also likely should have won at Road America.
Allgaier isn’t just stumbling into good finishes either. Although the lap by lap data from NASCAR for Road America is corrupted, we do have data from the five other races. In those five other races Allgaier has completed over 70% of his laps inside the Top 5. He has a series best average running position of 5.95. Although Cole Custer does have two wins, Allgaier has simply been the more consistent driver.
Allgaier has also been very consistent at Watkins Glen itself. Last year he crashed just a few laps into the race. Prior to that though he had four straight Top 5 finishes.
All things considered I’m happy to get +150 on a driver who has shown consistent speed at road courses and has been consistently strong here. I would take this down to +140 which is available at Caesars and Hard Rock.
