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On Sunday the NASCAR Cup Series makes its only visit of the year to Texas Motor Speedway for the EchoPark 400. For years Texas had hosted two races a year. Last year however Texas had a single points paying race while it hosted the All Star Race. This year Texas is down to a single date of any kind.
Texas lost a race because the racing at here has simply not been good over the past several years. In 2017 the track was reconfigured and repaved. Turns 1 and 2 are banked at just 20 degrees. Drivers have noted it is difficult to use the full width of the track in those turns. The repave has also resulted in lower tire fall off, which means that clean air has been king.
As a 1.5-mile quad oval, Texas has three primary comparable tracks. The track with the most similar shape is Charlotte, which is also a 1.5-mile quad-oval. Las Vegas and Kansas are also very similar to Texas as they are 1.5-mile tri-ovals. In handicapping this race I am also looking at recent speed in the intermediate package in general. This means I’m also looking at data from Darlington, Pocono, and Michigan.
As we get closer and closer to the end of the season value is becoming harder to find. While we have more information, books do too. Given that there is less value out there, its once again important to remember that we don’t have to make bets just because odds have been posted. So, with that in mind, lets take a look at the value I do want to go ahead and lock in now.
Dale Jr may not want to talk about it, but the Owners Championship still matters. Chase missed the playoffs as a driver but the 9 car is still in the running for Owners Championship. The Owners Championship standings are what determine payout to teams based on charter performance, so you had better believe that HMS is still putting plenty of effort into the cars Chase is getting.
While there is no doubt that Chase is having a down year, that doesn’t mean that the 9 team hasn’t still had some speed. Just two weeks ago at Kansas Elliott finished fourth. In that race he had an average running position of 5.2, second only to race winner Tyler Reddick at 5.0. The week before that at Darlington he finished eighth. At Michigan he had a very fast car before a tire failure ended his day. At Pocono he also had decent speed, finishing tenth.
Last year at Texas Elliott was the car to beat until he had his right front tire blow. At the time of his crash he was first in speed and had led 44 laps. He completed 95% of his laps inside the Top 10.
Bottom line, Elliott may be having a down year, but he is still good at this track type and at this track. If you had told someone that you would be able to bet Elliott at 8-1 at Texas for Top Chevy back in February they would have laughed at you. Certainly there are reasons his odds are longer now, 8-1 is an overreaction. I have half a unit on this. I would bet it down to +750, which is available at Caesars. If you want to go even bigger I don’t hate his odds to win at +1800 which is available at Caesars and BetRivers or even +2000 at BetFred.
