The Xfinity Series makes its first of two trips to Phoenix Raceway on Saturday. Phoenix is a mile-long “flat” oval with a “dogleg” on the front stretch with 9 degrees of banking. Turns 1 and 2 are banked at 9 degrees. Turns 3 and 4 are banked at 11 degrees. The backstretch is banked at 3 degrees.
Unlike last weekend at COTA, where the field was full of ringers, this weekend there are just two true ringers in the field. Alex Bowman will run the Hendrick Motorsports 17 car. Aric Almirola is also joining the field, making one of his nine starts in the Joe Gibbs Racing 19 car.
Despite two high powered ringers, Justin Allgaier is still the favorite in the Win The Race SIM FMV. Where we have him winning the race right around 20% of the time. Most books have Allgaier, Almirola, and Bowman at +400 so there is no value there. In fact, Bowman’s pricing is creating a value elsewhere. Our simulations, while potentially low on Bowman, have him winning just 2.96% of the time.
The sim is low on Bowman because he has never had success at Phoenix. It’s been a few years, and most of the starts were in equipment that is not as good as the HMS car he will drive Saturday, but in six Xfinity starts at Phoenix, Bowman only has one Top 10 finish. His Cup stats are quite similar. In 15 starts with HMS, he has just 2 Top 10 finishes. This means there is significant value on Bowman NOT to win the race at Caesars, where he is -500 to not win.
Given this history, I’m looking for ways to fade Alex Bowman in the Xfinity Series this week. However, that’s not where I’m going to place my first Xfinity bets of the week.
Last weekend, Connor Zilisch proved why he is one of the top prospects in NASCAR. Despite an unlucky penalty for making a pit stop while pit road was closed, he fought his way back to the front and won the race in dominant fashion. I don’t expect him to have the same level of dominance this weekend. I do, however, think he should be considered one of the favorites.
Our Pre-Practice and Qualifying ranks at Win The Race agree. We have Connor ranked 2nd. He sits sandwiched between Jr. Motorsports teammate Justin Allgaier and short flat track expert/Joe Gibbs Racing ringer Aric Almirola.
Connor’s rank is based on his JRM equipment and his performance last year in the ARCA Menards Series. Last year his performance at this track type was nothing short of complete domination. At the four short flat tracks, he won three of four races. In the other race, he finished second. He won at Iowa, leading 102 of 150 laps. At Indianapolis Raceway Park, he won, leading 89 of 205 laps. Finally, at Phoenix, he won, leading 99 of 100 laps. So books pricing him as around the eighth best driver doesn’t make sense.
Our SIM FMV, which runs 20,000 simulations of the race, has Connor winning the race 10.21% of the time. Behind Justin Allgaier and Aric Almirola. It also has him finishing inside the Top 3 nearly 25% of the time.
Zilisch is priced at +1200 to win at most books, which is value. However, Hard Rock Sportsbook offers even more value, with Zilisch at +1400 to win. We are also getting great value on Zilisch’s Top 3 odds at Hard Rock and Bet365. Both books have Connor priced at +375, just 21.05% implied to finish Top 3.
Overall, I am putting a total of 1 unit on Connor. I have .4u on him to win at +1300 and .6u on him to finish Top 3 at +375. I would bet these down to +1000 and +350.
