Groovy Hollow Recap
The 2025 NASACR Season, and indeed the single race championship format, come to an end on Sunday. Phoenix is a one-mile dog-leg oval. Turns 1 and 2 are banked at nine degrees while turns 3 and 4 are banked at 11 degrees. The front stretch is banked at nine degrees and the backstretch is banked at three degrees. The dog-leg on the front stretch has no banking. Indeed, drivers going from the banking to the dog-leg often bottom out making noticeable sparks as they move to the flat dog-leg surface. However, as it makes the path from the start-finish line to turn 1 significantly shorter, it will see a lot of use this week.
When handicapping Phoenix all short-flat tracks are relevant. Phoenix is most commonly compared to Richmond. However, tire wear at Phoenix is far less significant than at Richmond. Phoenix is also compared to New Hampshire, though Phoenix has significantly more banking. Iowa is another track that Phoenix is compared to, though Iowa is shorter and has slightly more banking. Finally, for the Truck series Indianapolis Raceway Park, which is just over half a mile in length, with 12 degrees of banking in all turns, is relevant. Ultimately when handicapping this race I’m looking at a driver’s overall performance at these tracks for current speed and of course giving weight to a driver’s performance at Phoenix for a skill factor.
For this final weekend of the 2025 Season I have one pick for each race:
Bet365 has Ben Rhodes grouped with Corey LaJoie, Daniel Hemric, and Rajah Caruth for its Group C. Corey LaJoie is the co-favorite with Hemric at +180. I do think LaJoie should be the favorite in this group, but 365 is overvaluing Hemric and Caruth, as well as LaJoie for that matter, opening up significant value on Rhodes, who Win The Race has as the second most likely to win this group.
There is no doubt that Rhodes has struggled in 2025. Rhodes missed the playoffs and despite being in the Championship Four, Ty Majeski is winless to date. However, despite the struggles, Rhodes has still shown flashes of speed at short tracks. Rhodes has had above average speed at three of four short tracks and logged over half of his laps in the Top 10 in those same three races.
The four drivers have only all raced together twice, at Richmond and New Hampshire. LaJoie won the group both times, but Rhodes finished eighth, to LaJoie’s fifth at Richmond, showing he can hang with the group favorite. ThorSport is certainly focused on trying to get a second championship for Majeski this weekend. That said, I’m not writing off two time Truck Series Champion Ben Rhodes who has always found a way to finish well at Phoenix. Rhodes has finished Top 10 in his last six starts here.
At Win The Race we have LaJoie as the favorite of this group, winning it around 31% of the time. Rhodes is second most likely to win at 24%. Both Hemric and Caruth win the group in our simulations around 22.5% of the time. I would bet Rhodes down to +400.
Aric Almirola is not running full time in 2025. He has only made 16 starts in the Xfinity Series this year. That said, he has excelled in those starts, he has three wins, including here at Phoenix in March. In addition, he has tons of incentive to win, while he isn’t racing for a driver’s championship, he is racing for the owners championship.
In the spring race here at Phoenix Almirola was dominate. He never left the Top 10 and even recorded 91.83% of his laps in the Top 3. Since that time Connor Zilisch, who had a middling day, has come into his own, so in addition to the strong challenge Almirola will face from Justin Allgaier, he will have to fight a Zilisch who is almost certain to record a stronger performance.
At Win The Race we have Almirola as the favorite, winning this race 21.22% of the time. I would bet him to win down to +400.
Josh Berry came up on short tracks in the Cars Late Model Stock Tour. He won 22 of his 56 starts in that series from 2015-2022. After a rough year at Stewart Haas Racing in 2024, as that organization was shutting down, Josh Berry has returned to strong short track performances in 2025.
He has finished Top 10 in three of four short track races. In all four short track races he has had above average speed. In two of four races he has had over 60% of his laps in the Top 10 and an average running position under 10.
At Win The Race we have Josh Berry finishing Top 10 in 42.59% of our simulations. That’s well better than the 39.22% implied probability of +155.
I would bet Berry to finish Top 10 down to +145.
