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Today we get a doubleheader (triple if you count Cup qualifying) at Atlanta. Rain washed out qualifying for Trucks and Xfinity so the starting lineup has been set by formula for both races. Somewhat fortunately for us as bettors, the reconfigured Atlanta races like a combination super speedway and 1.5 mile intermediate which means qualifying wouldn’t have given us much useful information anyway. Unfortunately for us this means that we are relying entirely on historical data, and even then most of the data that is from tracks other than Atlanta, to project this race.
This is just the third Truck race of 2023 as the series has off weeks following the season opener at Daytona and the week three race at Las Vegas. Zane Smith won at Daytona, after being outside the Top 10 in stages 1 and 2. Kyle Busch won at Las Vegas in his debut in the Chevrolet version of Kyle Busch Motorsports.
Ty had a strong day at Daytona to open the season. He finished the race in sixth place while also finishing both stages in that position. He also had a good day at Last Vegas, finishing fifth and was second at the end of stage 1 and 10th at the end of stage 2. Majeski is a talented driver who is running up front right now. Last year at Atlanta he finished third. Grabbing a win requires that you be up front and in a position to take advantage of a mistake by the leader or get a run with support from behind you. Given the uncertainty of how Atlanta may run, since we only have a few races of data, I am staying small at just 1/2 a unit, and I wouldn’t go under +900, but at that price I’m willing to roll the dice on Majeski.
Rhodes finished second at Atlanta in 2022 and has won at Daytona. He started the season with just an 11th place finish at Daytona, but did manage to get some stage points in that race and grabbed a third place finish two weeks ago at Las Vegas. As with Majeski the uncertainty of this race has me going small and has me locked to +1000 being my floor, but at +1000 I’m willing to give it a shot for half a unit. Hopefully at the end Ty and Ben, who are teammates at ThorSport Racing are with each other and one can push the other to a win and get us into victory lane.
Austin Hill has dominated the season so far with wins at Daytona and Las Vegas and Top 10 finishes at Auto Club and Phoenix. Given this dominance he is rightly the favorite for today’s race. The consensus price of +450 is just shorter than I can personally buy in at given the drafting element of this track and the chaos we saw here last year. Given his dominance I understand if you want to bet on Hill and don’t think it’s a terrible bet, it’s just not one I’m personally making.
The driver I am on for Xfinity is Justin Haley. Justin is an extremely talented pack/drafting driver, who has four wins at Daytona and Talladega in the Xfinity Series. Last year in the Cup Series he finished 11th and 7th here at Atlanta while in a car that was far from the greatest at most tracks. Haley has what it takes to win here and so I’m in for half a unit at +800.