The 2026 NASCAR Cup series season kicks off for real this afternoon. Between the forecast of rain being pushed back and NASCAR moving the start forward, it looks like the entire race will get run today. So when the green flag drops at 2:17, 41 drivers will put their foot to the floor and hope to survive 200 laps of chaos on the 2.5-mile tri-oval.
Thursday I made two long shot Top 10 bets. Those bets bank on chaos to help drivers make their way forward. Today’s bet still assumes chaos, but it assumes that skill and experience will help drivers avoid it.
Ford has won six of the 18 races (37.5%) at Daytona and Talladega in the Gen 7 era (since 2022). These wins include the 2022 Daytona 500 and last year’s summer race at Daytona. Both races were won by drivers from Team Penske. They also have another eight second place finishes (44%) in the Gen 7 era. In short, Ford has been very strong at drafting tracks over the past several years.
Ford’s string performance at drafting tracks continued on Thursday. The four RFK Fords controlled the first 75% of Duel 1. Chaos following pit stops shuffled them out of the lead. However, the Team Penske Fords of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney ultimately finished one-two.
At Win The Race our 100,000 simulations have Ford coming out on top in 36.6% of the simulations. That translates to a fair market value on Ford of +173. With that number in mind, I’m thrilled to be getting +215 (31.75% implied) on Ford at DraftKings. I would bet this down to +190.
