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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway in southern Virginia on Sunday for the penultimate race of the 2024 season. The “paperclip” is a is a 0.526-mile true oval. The track has no banking on the straight aways and is banked at just 12 degrees in the turns. The track is unique in having both asphalt and concrete racing surfaces. The turns are paved with concrete while the straight aways are concrete. Given these factors there are no tracks that provide particularly good predictive correlation with Martinsville.
Handicapping this race is further complicated by the playoff implications. Tyler Reddick and Joey Logano are locked into the Championship race by virtue of having won at Homestead and Las Vegas. The six remaining drivers all have at least one win here at Martinsville. Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are effectively in must-win positions as they are 38 and 43 points back from the cut line. Denny Hamlin could find a way to get to the final on points. However, it won’t be easy as he sits 18 points behind William Byron. Denny would also need to jump over Kyle Larson, who is just 7 points behind Byron.
Of the playoff drivers, Denny Hamlin leads the way with five wins. However, Denny hasn’t won here is nine years. William Bryon has two wins here, including the Spring 2024 race. Ryan Blaney is the defending champion of this race and Christopher Bell won this race two years ago. Chase Elliott used the fall Martinsville race to springboard himself into the 2020 Championship, which he won. Finally, Kyle Larson won here last spring.
Given where the playoff drivers are and the need to win, there could be chaos among the leaders. I do see some value in Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. Given the potential chaos however, my best bet is moving away from the playoff drivers into a head to head between two drivers who missed the playoffs entirely.
Richard Childress Racing and Kyle Busch have been lost at short flat tracks in 2024. While Austin Dillon did win at Richmond, it seems at least possible that his win was fueled by “stolen” data from Joe Gibbs Racing. Certainly, we haven’t seen Dillon be very competitive in the weeks since that win.
The numbers between Chastain and Busch are not close. Busch may be a two-time winner here, but his recent performances have not been good. In the five Gen 7 races at Martinsville, Ross is 5-0 against Busch. Busch’s best Gen 7 finish was seventh place in the Spring 2022 race. Since that time, he has finished 29th, 21st, 27th, and 16th. Over that same time, Ross finished fifth, fourth, 13th, 14th, and 14th.
As noted above, Martinsville is unique, but we can still gain some insight from how drivers have performed at short, flat tracks. In 2024, Ross is 6-0 against Busch at short flat tracks. The closest Busch has come was at Martinsville, where he finished 16th to Chastain’s 14th.
Its not just finishes either. If we look at Average Running Position at Martinsville in the Gen 7 car, Ross has run around eight positions better than Busch. He has also run more than twice as many fastest laps. The same holds true in the six short flat races in 2024.
The Speed Geeks Sim Center at Win The Race has Ross as a heavy favorite as well. The Sim Center has Ross winning this matchup 62.9% of the time. That’s significantly better than the 54.55% implied by -120 odds being offered at Draft Kings.
Given their Gen 7 history at Martinsville and their 2024 short flat track performance, I’m happy to back Ross in this matchup, even if it means paying juice at -120. I would be comfortable backing this all the way to -135.
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