The NASCAR Cup Series returns to intermediate track racing on Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. Texas is a 1.5-mile quad-oval track. Turns 1 and 2 feature 20 degrees of banking, and Turns 3 and 4 are 24 degrees. The front and back stretches are relatively flat, banked at just five degrees.
Many view Texas quite differently from the other 1.5-mile ovals on the NASCAR circuit. Between the 2016 and 2017 seasons, track officials reconfigured Turns 1 and 2, widening the racing surface from 60 to 80 feet and reducing the banking from 24 to 20 degrees. Unfortunately, the results have not been positive. This is because the changes have resulted in chaotic, caution-filled races. In 2024, the Texas race featured 14 natural cautions and five cars unable to finish due to wrecks. The 2023 race had nine natural cautions and 10 cars that wrecked. In 2022, there were 14 natural cautions and seven cars that wrecked. This is compared to an average of just four natural cautions at other intermediate tracks in 2024.
The 2017 repave also means that Texas has lower tire wear than the other intermediate tracks. This has made passing harder and track position even more important than at other intermediate venues. As such there are some options for teams, such as taking just two tires, that will be available.
23XI has been very good at Texas the past two years. In the fall 2023 race, Bubba Wallace led 111 laps and Tyler Reddick led 36 laps. Bubba Wallace was the number one driver in Win The Race True Performance for that race. Last year, Tyler Reddick was the top-rated driver in True Performance, leading 37 laps and finishing fourth. Bubba Wallace also led five laps and finished seventh.
In 2025, at the four tracks using the intermediate package (which include Bristol) Tyler Reddick has the fourth fastest incident adjusted speed. Bubba Wallace is close behind in fifth. Sorted by True Performance Rating Tyler Reddick is ranked fourth.
Reddick also won here in 2022 when he was with Richard Childress Racing. So his history at the track is very strong. The Win The Race Pre-Practice and Qualifying scores have Reddick ranked second.
In the Win The Race Sim FMV simulations, Tyler Reddick has a 17.69% chance to win the race. This translates to fair odds of +465. At +700, we are getting odds that are well clear of this number, even accounting for the potential chaos of this race. We are also getting reasonable value on Reddick’s Top 3 and Top 5 odds. So, rather than going all in on the win, I’m going to ladder Reddick’s Top 5/3/win bets.
I’m betting a total of 1.6u on Reddick. First, I’m betting .3u to win +750 (Bet to +600) at Caesars Sportsbook. I’m also betting .5u for him to finish Top 3 at +220 (Bet to +175) at Bet365. Finally, I’m .8u on him to finish Top 5 at +125 (Bet to +100) at Bet365.
