This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series returns to its roots, going short track racing in the mountains of North Carolina. North Wilkesboro is a 0.625-mile true oval with 13 degrees of banking in the turns and three degrees of banking on the straight aways. The defining feature of the track is its approximately 18 feet of elevation change between the end of the track. After drivers exit turn two they run uphill on the back stretch before going back downhill on the frontstretch. After laying dormant and falling into disrepair from 1996 to 2023, the track was restored and hosted the 2023 All Star Race. The track was repaved after the 2023 season, making it one of the newest surfaces on the Cup Series schedule. After three years of hosting the All Star race, this year the track rejoins the Cup Series schedule as a points paying race.
As the first points race at North Wilkesboro in 30 years, there is not a lot of historical data for drivers to use in projecting this race. While we do have the All Star race data, that data is on races with a reduced number of cars on the track, a reduced number of laps, and unique “gimmicks” like a “Promoter’s Caution.” As such, while there is some information that can be drawn on from those events, I am more focused on general short track history and recent overall driver performance than specific North Wilkesboro results when I am handicapping this race.
When Shane Van Gisbergen first joined NASCAR it was understood that he was a road course specialist. This was born out in his first full time season in the Xfinity (not O’Reilly Auto Parts) Series in 2024 and his first full time Cup season last year. In the 2024 Xfinity season he won three road course races and finished Top 5 in the other two races. However, outside of the five road course events on the schedule, he had just five Top 5 finishes in the other 28 events. Last year in his first full time Cup Season he finished Top 10 in all six road course events but recorded just one Top 10 in the other 30 races. However, in 2026 we have seen significant improvement from the veteran New Zealander.
So far in 2026 the Cup Series has run 12 events at traditional (non-drafting) ovals. In those races SVG has just one Top 10 finish but he also has two more 11th place finishes. Importantly, the Top 10 finish and the two 11th place finishes were all in the 750HP package that will be used this weekend. Additionally, while as previously noted I am weighing All Star Race performance less than other factors, it is notable that he was on the pole and led 54 laps in last year’s All Star Open before pit strategy shuffled him back.
A short oval like North Wilkesboro makes breaking important. Footwork for breaking and accelerating out of the turns at road courses is one of the things that sets SVG apart at those venues. While less important at a short oval, it nevertheless plays into SVG’s strengths. At Win The Race we have SVG finishing Top 10 in 27.5% of our simulations. That us well clear of the 16.67% implied probability of +500 being offered at FanDuel. So I’ll happily take SVG to finish Top 10 this weekend and would bet him down to +325 to do so.
