NASCAR is staying out west this weekend for the second road/street course in as many weeks. Its also the last time NASCAR will run an event with left and right turns in 2026. NASCAR runs the 1.99-mile, 10-turn “Chute” configuration, which uses a straight section bypassing the traditional Turns 5 and 6 known as “the Carousel.” The circuit packs more elevation change than any other road course on the NASCAR schedule, with over 160 feet of variation from the highest to lowest points. The track was repaved just two years ago, so tire wear is unlikely to factor nearly as much this weekend as it did last week at Coronado or in May at Watkins Glen.
Although he is just one of three at road/street courses so far in 2026, Shane Van Gisbergen is the heavy favorite in the Win The Race model. Last week, before Austin Hill wrecked and took out Shane and teammate Connor Zilisich they were clearly the two best drivers at Coronado. The books agree that the misfortune of last week shouldn’t take away from Van Gisbergen’s prowess and he opened at or under even money at every book. As of the time of this article he is currently sitting at around -150 or shorter at most shops.
However, as skilled as SVG is, we still only have him winning a touch under 50% of our simulations. So at -150 there simply isn’t value per our model. That said, I’m not really interested in betting against the driver who erased an 29 second deficit in 18 laps at Watkins Glen. So to find value this weekend I’m looking to markets where I’m not directly betting against Van Gisbergen.
Since the dawn of stage racing in 2017 the Cup series has run 41 street/road course events. Only six times, 14.6%, has the winner of stage 1 gone on to win the race. This includes Michael McDowell’s 2023 sweep of the stages and win at the IMS road course when stage cautions were not thrown.
The reason for drivers failing to convert stage 1 wins to race wins at these tracks is simple. Road course laps typically take over two minutes. As such, it is possible to make a pit stop before the end of the stage and stay on the lead lap. Drivers who “short pit” the stage are thus able to jump the drivers who stay out during the stage break as the stage winner will need to pit during the stage break. So stage 1 winners are rarely cars that have race winning pace. Stage 1 winners are cars that stay out to opportunistically get stage points to make up for an anticipated worse finishing position. Even if a driver has race winning pace, staying out to win the stage forces the driver back into the pack to start stage 2 significantly reducing odds that the driver will be able to fight his way back to the front.
Even Shane Van Gisbergen has only managed to win both stage one and the race once. In fact, he is regularly among those who short pit before the stage end. He has only won stage 1 at these tracks twice. The first time was at Chicago in 2024, where he was wrecked and finished 40th. The second was last year at the Charlotte Roval, where he did pull off the win.
Even if we assume that SVG would have won absent the wreck at Chicago in 2024, that would still only give him a 25% rate of winning stage 1 when he wins the race. Looking at the full set of street/road course races that SVG has run, again even assuming the Chicago race would have been a win, he would be just two of 15, 13.33%, winning both stage 1 and the race, which is right in line with the series average for doing so.
Given the rarity with which stage 1 winners manage to win the race, the no for stage 1 winner to win the race at -130 offered by Bet365, 56.52% implied for an even that has actually happened 85.5% of the time historically, is a great value. It seems that Bet365 is counting on people seeing the even money offer on the other side of this bet and assuming it’s an easy way to get SVG at better odds than his -150 to win that is offered straight up. History doesn’t support this though. I’d be comfortable betting against the stage 1 winner managing to cross the line as the leader at the end of the race down to -150.
