This afternoon Homestead-Miami Speedway plays host to the final NASCAR Cup Series intermediate race of 2024. Homestead-Miami Speedway is 1.5-mile true oval. The track has some of the most extreme tire wear of any track NASCAR runs at. So tire management and pit crew performance will be at a premium this afternoon.
The most similar track to Homestead is Darlington Raceway. Darlington is slightly shorter and has the egg shape, but the banking and tire wear at the two tracks are very similar. Homestead has 18-20 degree banking it its turns. Darlington has 25 degrees of banking in turns 1/2 and 23 degrees of banking in turns 3/4. In the Gen 7 car there has also been fairly significant correlation between Miami-Homestead and the other banked intermediate tracks of and Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Kansas. Of these three Las Vegas and Kansas have somewhat more correlation given the higher tire wear at those tracks. So between the seven races at comparable tracks in 2024 and yesterday’s practice and qualifying session we have a lot of data to work with for handicapping this race.
Buescher and Wallace have been fairly evenly matched on this track type in 2024. Before practice and qualifying Win The Race had them ranked within four positions of each other. In the seven comp track races Buescher has a slight, 4-3, lead in head to head wins this year. So prior to practicing qualifying I wouldn’t have been interested in this matchup.
In practice and qualifying, however, Bubba distinguished himself. Bubba recorded the third fastest overall single lap time. He was just three one thousandths of a second behind his teammate, Tyler Reddick, who led the field. Bubba’s 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 lap averages were all significantly faster than Buescher’s as well.
Bubba followed up his solid practice with a strong qualifying effort. Bubba will roll off eighth this afternoon. Buescher on the other hand continued to struggle and qualified 21st.
The Speed Geeks Sim Center at win the race has picked up on the disparity in on the track speed this weekend. The Sim Center has fair market value on this bet at -156 for Bubba. That makes the +100 offered at Bet365 one of the best bets of the day.
Buesher’s teammate, Brad Keselowski, did have a better practice than Buescher. However, even if Buescher manages to improve some with notes from Brad, Bubba’s strong performance should still make him the favorite in this matchup. Bubba has the better track position to start and a better pit stall all day long. That means that even if he finds speed Buescher has a lot of work to do and that Bubba should win this matchup more than the 50% implied by +100 odds.
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