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The second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs starts today with the Hollywood 400 at Kansas Speedway. When handicapping Kansas my primary focus is on Kansas and the other higher wear intermediates tracks. We have had four races on higher wear intermediates in 2024. Two races at Darlington, one at Las Vegas, and one previous race at Kansas. In addition to those races yesterday we were able to see cars on track for a short practice session and qualifying. So we have a large volume of information to consider for this race.
Over the past ten races, and particularly the past three in the Gen 7 car, Toyota has been the dominate manufacturer at Kansas. Toyota has won seven of the last ten races and four of the five races in the Gen 7 car. Although this spring Kyle Larson did finally manage to knock of Toyota and Chris Buescher was just .001 seconds behind him for the closest finish in Cup Series history.
Hendrick Motorsports may have finally closed the gap on Toyota here this weekend. Although the front row will be made up of two Toyotas, the four HMS cars were ranked one to four in the Speed Geeks Practice Model at Win The Race.
Unfortunately I don’t see any value on those six drivers right now, but I do still have a driver who I want to get a bet in on before the green flag flies this afternoon.
Buescher has been great at the high wear intermediates in 2024. After getting wrecked out on lap eight at Las Vegas, Buescher finished 2nd here in the spring. The next week Buescher was again in contention late at the first Darlington race before a late race incident with Tyler Reddick. At the Southern 500 earlier this month Buescher finished sixth.
Looking at Front Runners from Win the Race Buescher has the fifth best average running position at the four higher wear intermediate tracks in 2024. Buescher has completed 70% of the laps he has run inside the Top 10. Given that he only complete three laps at Las Vegas its hard to say how he might have finished there, but he was in line to finish Top 10 at the three other races in the dataset.
Buescher didn’t have a great qualifying run yesterday. He will line up 25th when the green flag flies. His practice wasn’t anything to write home about either, as the Speed Geeks Practice Model had him down at 21st in practice. However, his teammate Brad Keselowski was eighth in practice. So I have faith that RFK can get his car right for the race. The Speed Geeks Sim Center at Win the Race has this as fair at +177. So all things considered I expect Buescher to content for a Top 10 this afternoon and getting him at +225 is a gift from the books.
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