This weekend NASCAR heads to the mountains of Pennsylvania to run the “Tricky Triangle” of Pocono Raceway. Unlike a conventional oval, the 2.5-mile long track is shaped like a triangle with just three turns (or perhaps five if you count like a traditional oval). Turn 1 (or turns 1 and 2) carries 14 degrees of banking inspired by the old Trenton Speedway. Turn 2 the “Tunnel Turn,” has a mere 8 degrees borrowed from Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Finally, Turn 3 (or turns 4 and 5) features just 6 degrees of banking patterned after the Milwaukee Mile. Connecting it all is a massive 3,740-foot frontstretch, the longest in NASCAR, which sends drivers barreling toward Turn 1 at full throttle. The combination of three distinct corners, sweeping straightaways, and minimal banking forces teams into a difficult balancing act on setup, demanding a car that can handle three essentially separate personalities every single lap.
In addition to needing pure speed to win at Pocono, strategy is often a critical factor. Over the past decade approximately 30% of races at the track have been “fuel mileage” races. This includes Chris Buescher’s fog shortened win in 2016. So careful planning of fuel use will be a critical element of the race, as even if the race isn’t decided on fuel mileage, teams will likely need to at least plan for that to be a factor.
Despite having a win at the track, from the fog shortened fuel mileage race in 2016, at a first glance Buescher’s Pocono history isn’t particularly inspiring. In his 15 starts outside of the race he won, he has just two Top 10 finishes. However, its worth keeping in mind that six of those starts came in JTG-Daugherty Racing equipment. Another four were with Roush-Fenway, when the team was in a bit of a rut prior to becoming Roush Fenway Keselowski in 2022.
In the Gen 7 car, Buescher has shown continual improvement at Pocono. Buescher has had above average speed every year since 2022. In addition, he has improved his finished position and True Performance Rating in every race.
In 2026, Buescher has been the best Ford in the intermediate package by a wide margin. In the five races that utilize the 670 horsepower intermediate package, Buescher leads all Fords in every category. That includes having the best driver rating, average running position, and incident adjusted speed. Even last week at Michigan, where he finished behind Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, he had the best Ford early, before he was forced to pit for an issue with a hood pin. Despite that issue, he still managed to work his way back to the Top 10 and finish ninth.
Books are favoring Ryan Blaney to be the Top Ford. At Win The Race however, we have Buescher as the favorite to be Top Ford. Buescher has simply been the best Ford in this package in 2026 and given his continual improvement at Pocono over the past few years, there is no reason to think that won’t continue this weekend. Given the uncertainty and potential for fuel mileage to play a role in this race, I want to keep a very healthy margin on this bet, but I would be comfortable with this down to +300.
