This afternoon the NASCAR Cup Series will run 200 laps at Michigan International Speedway. The track is a two-mile long D-shaped oval with 18 degrees of banking in the turns. The track is very smooth and does not create much wear on tires. As such Michigan features some of the fastest speeds that drivers will run outside of Daytona and Talladega. Chase Briscoe’s pole speed was 195.514 miles per hour. In practice we saw multiple drivers make 10 laps runs with an average speed over 193 miles per hour.
Given its length and banking Michigan does not have any truly comparable tracks. However, we can still get good information about projected driver performance by looking at the other high speed intermediate tracks that the Cup Series has visited in 2025. Historical performance at Michigan is also an important factor that is taken into consideration for my projections this week.
Austin Cindric has not had great finishes at the intermediate tracks in 2025. In the six races at Las Vegas, Homestead, Darlington, Kansas, Charlotte, and Nashville he has just one Top 10 finish. That was a sixth back at Las Vegas in mid-March. However, he does also have a pair of 11th place finishes at Kansas and Darlington. As importantly, he has shown good long run speed in these races.
Two of the three races at Michigan in the Gen 7 car have ended with a green flag runs of at least 35 laps. Last year’s race was in a 54 lap green flag run when a caution came out with five to go. So long run speed will likely be important this afternoon.
“Late run” speed is of the metrics that NASCAR provides via its loop data. NASCAR defines late run speed as a drivers speed during the last 25% of laps before a pit stop. Drivers must finish within five laps of the leader to have late run speed calculated by NASCAR.
At Las Vegas Cindric had the second best long run speed of the race, behind only Kyle Larson. He had fringe Top 10 long run speed at Homestead (11th) and Darlington (13th). Then at Texas he broke back into the Top 10 before having the third best long run speed at Kansas and fifth best long run speed at Nashville.
Cindric looked strong in practice yesterday. He had the eighth best 5 lap average and jumped to the third best 10 lap average. At Win The Race we look at lap by lap speeds along with lap averages and produce an overall practice score. Austin Cindric was the second best Ford in this metric and was seventh overall. Cindric followed up his strong practice with a decent qualifying effort. He will line up 11th this afternoon after running a 36.938 second lap for an average speed of 194.921 miles per hour.
At Win The Race we run 20,000 simulations of each race. In our simulations we have Austin Cindric finishing in the Top 10 just over 43% of the time. This is significantly better than the 31.25% implied by the +220 being offered for him to finish in the Top 10 at Bet365. To ensure I am keeping a significant edge on this bet I would comfortable taking this down to +175.
