After two weeks of drafting this week the NASCAR Cup Series goes road course racing at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA). This will be the second year running this specific layout. Starting in 2025 NASCAR is running on a shorter 18-turn, 2.356-mile circuit rather than the full 3.426-mile 20-turn loop. Goodyear is also bringing back the same tire that debuted here last season.
This week Shane Van Gisbergen has opened as a heavy favorite at all books. Last year he won the last five road/street courses of the season. However, at COTA Van Gisbergen had what was, by his standards, a disappointing weekend. Van Gisbergen qualified and finished sixth.
After COTA however, Van Gisbergen ran off five straight road/street course wins. So respect is certainly deserved, but at least in my simulations, not at the level the books are giving. This does open up theoretical value on outright bets, that said, I’m looking for markets where I don’t have to directly bet against Van Gisbergen.
Chase Briscoe’s first four seasons at the Cup level while driving for Stewart-Haas Racing were not inspiring. Over 21 road/street course races he had only six Top 10 finishes and no Top 5 finishes. However, last season, driving with Joe Gibbs Racing, Briscoe had three Top 10 finishes and two Top 5 finishes. Briscoe’s success with Joe Gibbs Racing is hardly surprising though. In 11 road course starts in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series while driving top tier equipment Briscoe had eight Top 10 finishes, four Top 5 finishes, and two wins.
In addition to his 50% Top 10 finish rate in 2025, Briscoe’s in race performance was outstanding in 2025. He completed nearly 60% of his laps on road/street courses inside the Top 10. That includes running over 50% of his laps at COTA inside the Top 10.
At Win The Race our 100,000 simulations have Chase Briscoe finishing in the Top 10 this weekend over 54% of the time. That translates to fair odds of -118. At Caesars Briscoe is +110 to finish inside the Top 10 which translates to implied odds of 47.62%. This means that we have quite a lot of room to be over optimistic on Briscoe and still have value on this bet. I would bet this down to even money.
