This weekend the NASCAR Cup and Truck Series head to Michigan to take on the two-mile D-shaped oval of Michigan International Speedway. Michigan has been on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule since 1969. However, before its return last year, the Truck Series had not raced at Michigan since 2020.
Michigan features 18 degrees of banking in the turns, 12 degrees on the front stretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. Repaved in 2012 races at the track are beginning to feature more significant tire wear and drivers can successfully operate in two-three separate grooves. With Auto Club in California off of the NASCAR schedule there are no direct comparable tracks. However, driver performance at high speed intermate tracks like Texas and Charlotte can provide some predictive value.
This week I wanted to find value on Michigan’s native son, Carson Hocevar. Unfortunately his odds in the Cup Series are simply shorter than I am willing to bite on right now. So, I turned to the Truck Series and found a way to get some value on Hocevar before practice and qualifying Saturday morning.
Hocevar has made three starts at Michigan, two in the Cup Series and one in the O’Reilly Auto Parts (then Xfinity) Series. His best finish to date was a 10th place run in the 2024 Cup Series race. However, last year he was a threat to win the Cup Series race, leading 32 laps in stage three. Unfortunately for Hocevar he had his left rear tire go down while leading and was forced to pit.
Racing “down” in the Craftsman Truck Series doesn’t necessarily mean that the competition Hocevar will face is lower this week. Joining him in the Truck Series race are fellow Cup Series drivers Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2025 Truck Series Champion Corey Heim, running a part time Cup and Truck Series schedule before joining the Cup Series full time next year will also be running the Truck race this weekend. Despite this stiff competition, which also includes Truck Series regulars Layne Riggs and Kaden Honeycutt, Win The Race does show marginal value on Carson to win the race outright at +600 (14.28% implied probability).
Rather than going for the outright win though, I’m looking to target a group bet with good odds. Group A at Bet365 consists of Hocevar, Riggs, Honeycutt, and Chastain. Its still a very competitive group, which is why we are getting 3-1 odds on Hocevar to win the group. However, it does remove Cory Heim and Christopher Bell from the pool of drivers that Hocevar needs to beat for us to win, and given that our simulations have Heim as the clear favorite in the race, that’s a big plus.
Our simulations have Hocevar winning this group 29.03% of the time. That translates to fair odds of +244. That puts us far enough above the market price of +300 (25% implied probability) that I’m willing to bite. The margin is still small though, so I wouldn’t bet this under +275 (26.67% implied probability).
