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On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series regular season will end at Darlington Raceway. For the past several years, the Southern 500 has been the opening race of the Cup Series Playoffs. However, the Olympics paused the Cup Series for two weeks this year, so this year, the Southern 500 is the regular season finale.
When handicapping Darlington, we have a very good pool of races we can look back on. Darlington is a 1.333-mile long egg-shaped oval. The racing surface at Darlington is quite abrasive, causing tires to wear down quickly. This tire wear means there is a big gap between the lap times a driver can record just before and just after tire changes. NASCAR has allotted teams eight sets of tires for this 500-mile race, and we can expect teams to change tires as often as possible.
Historically track has been most comparable to Homestead-Miami Speedway. With increased tire wear at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway over the past several years those two tracks also have high correlation to Darlington. As such, although they were several months ago we have three highly comparable races from 2024 to use. In addition, a driver’s overall speed and performance at intermediate tracks is relevant data to consider.
This spring, Berry had a wild weekend at Darlington. In practice, he showed a great ability to manage his tires. Of the 24 drivers who made a 25-lap run in practice, he had the third-best average speed. He also had the lowest fall-off between his 5-lap and 25-lap averages. In qualifying, Berry had a disappointing run through turns 3 and 4 after starting strong and ultimately lined up 33rd to start the race.
The start of the Goodyear 400 was not great for Berry. He was buried in traffic and struggled. In the first quarter of the race, Berry’s average speed was more than two-tenths of a mile per hour UNDER the overall race average. However, Berry slowly made his way through the field and, on lap 79, entered the Top 20. At that point, his speed picked up considerably. For the second quarter of the race, Berry’s average lap time was 10th best. By the end of the race, Berry was one of the fastest cars on the track. In fact, over the last 20 laps, Berry was the fastest car, posting lap times nearly a tenth of a second faster than race winner Brad Keselowski over that time period.
Berry only has two starts here in the Cup Series but was solid here in the Xfinity Series. In five starts with JR Motorsports, he finished inside the Top 10 four times. Ultimately, this bet boils down to Berry having shown that he can work a car here into contention, even if he might not have the best speed to start with. Berry’s crew chief, Rodney Childers, also led Kevin Harvick to three wins at this track, so overall, the team has the experience to make a strong run. I wouldn’t take this bet under +1400, but at that price, I’m in for half a unit on Berry to end up as the Top Ford.
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