This weekend NASCAR heads back to its home in North Carolina for the longest race of the year. Sunday night Cup Series drivers will take to the 1.5-mile quad oval of Charlotte Motor Speedway to run 600 miles (400 laps). The turns of Charlotte are banked at 24 degrees, the frontstretch sits at 5 degrees, and the backstretch flattens out to 4 degrees. That turn banking is meaningfully steeper than the other 1.5-mile tracks on the NASCAR schedule; Kansas runs 17–20 degrees of progressive banking, Chicagoland 18 degrees, Las Vegas 20 degress, Texas variable at 20–24 degrees in the turns, and Homestead 18–20 degrees.
Over the past several years the track surface has become significantly more abrasive making tire wear a meaningful issue that drives will have to manage. Teams do have a lot of experience with the tire compound for this weekend though. Goodyear is bringing the same tires that have been used at the last two races at Las Vegas and Kansas, as well as this year’s races at Darlington, and Texas.
Denny Hamlin, and Toyota in general, are the clear favorites in the Win The Race model this week. In the first three 1.5-mile oval races of 2026 Toyota has been dominate. Toyota has won twice and nine Toyotas have finished in the Top 5 while only five Chevys and one Ford have managed a Top 5 finish. Hamlin has finished first, second, and fourth in those races. However, being 600 miles long, this race offers a lot of opportunity for things to get messy, so at the moment I’m looking to longer shot drivers in secondary markets for my early week best bet.
When Daniel Suarez signed with Spire for the 2026 season I thought he was getting a significant downgrade in equipment. After spending the past five years with Trackhouse I saw Spire as at best the third or fourth Chevy team in the Cup Series. Boy was I wrong, Trackhouse has been lackluster anywhere but road courses, while Spire has consistently brought cars with Top 10-15 speed.
In the three 1.5-mile ovals races Suarez has qualified 13th, eighth, and second. His teammate Carson Hocevar has qualified 19th, sixth, and first. Although Suarez didn’t hold his position in the first to races at Las Vegas and Kansas, just a few weeks ago at Texas he ran 71% of his laps in the Top 10 and finished sixth.
Charlotte itself hasn’t been great to Suarez. His best finish here in the Gen 7 is 23rd in 2023. In his entire career he only has one Top 10 finish here, a sixth place in the fall 2017 race when he was with Joe Gibbs Racing. However, given how fast Spire has been out of the gate in 2026, I think there is reason to be optimistic that he turns that around this week. Thought 12 races his average finish in 2026 is 15.0, which would be the best of his career if he keeps it up. Having signed just a one year deal, with rumors of Kyle Busch being a replacement for him, Suarez’s motivation has to be as high as its ever been.
At Win The Race our simulations have Suarez finishing Top 10 in 21.2% of our simulations. That translates to fair odds of +372. At Bet365 we are getting odds of +500, so our simulations are well above market on Suarez in this market. I would be comfortable betting this down to +450.
