The Cup Series makes its annual visit to the Racing Capital of the World, the third straight year back on the oval configuration after a three-year stint on the road course. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a 2.5-mile rectangular oval, banked 9.2 degrees in all four turns, with the straightaways flat at zero degrees. The long straightaways and flat corners load the tires differently than a typical intermediate, and they reward teams willing to gamble on aggressive setups. Goodyear brings a new right-side Racing Eagle here (code D-5296), featuring updated construction and a tread compound developed specifically for Indianapolis, tested in June by Ross Chastain, Ryan Preece and John Hunter Nemechek. It pairs with the same left side (D-5284) that most recently ran at Chicagoland.
Despite the intermediate package as a whole offering some of the best racing of the Gen 7 era, the races at Indy have not been as exciting the events at intermediate tracks with steeper banking. Making passes, particularly on the leader, has been exceedingly difficult. As such, expect teams to place a premium on strategies that will gain track position this weekend.
When handicapping this race history at Indy, and other long flat ovals are the primary comparables. Pocono, in particular, with turn two based off of the turns at Indy, is a guiding yardstick for this event. Additional data from the five other races in the intermediate package is also useful to help guide the model this week.
Its been a rough nine weeks for Tyler Reddick’s 45 team. On May 10, 2026, after the Watkins Glen race he held a 129 point lead in the standings. Since that time however he has had a run of terrible luck, while Denny Hamlin has been racking up wins.
First, Hamlin won three races in a row at Nashville, Michigan, and Pocono, while Reddick was wrecked out at Michigan. Then at the San Diego Road, where Reddick almost certainly expected to increase his lead on Hamlin, he had a flat tire late in the race while he was running 2nd, resulting in a 25th place finish to Denny’s 12th. The next week at Sonoma where Reddick again expected to do better than Hamlin, he had a power steering issue, relegating him to a last place finish, Denny only finished 26th, but that was enough to give Hamlin the points lead. The next week at Chicago Reddick was making a strong run but had debris puncture his radiator forcing him to finish 30 laps down. Last week at North Wilkesboro Reddick was having a decent day until he collided with Alex Bowman coming to pit road, he finished 30th to Hamlin’s second place finish.
Heading into this week’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Reddick sits 68 points behind Hamlin. Reddick’s chances of catching Denny before the points reset after Daytona are on life support. At Win The Race we have simulated out the next five races and have Reddick’s odds to catch Hamlin before the Chase at just 3.1%. Although Hamlin is the favorite this week, both at most sportsbooks and in the Win The Race model, Reddick the next best performer in our model and this weekend does represent Reddick’s best chance before Daytona to make a move on Hamlin.
Despite some bad luck at Indianapolis in the past Reddick has performed well here. He finished second here in 2024 and last year he had a Top 5 running position before wrecking in overtime. In the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series (then Xfinity) he has a second place finish and another race where he qualified fourth and ran Top 5 most of the day before a late wreck. Reddick’s 23XI teammate Bubba Wallace is also the reigning champion of this race, showing that 23XI knows how to bring strong cars here.
Ultimately Reddick needs to get out of his funk if he has any chance of catching Denny and retaking the number 1 seed for the Chase. This is his best shot to do so. I expect Reddick to come out hot this weekend and be a factor all day. At Win The Race we have Reddick at 14.5% to win. That translates to fair odds of +590, well clear of the +800 being offered by Bet 365. Indeed at an edge of 3.39% Tyler Reddick to win is by far our biggest value play in the outright market. I would be comfortable betting this down to +700.
