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Sunday the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway for the Advent Health 400. This will be the first of two visits to the 1.5-mile tri-oval for the Cup Series in 2024.
Kansas is one of the four “cookie cutter” tracks left on the Cup Series schedule. The has progressive banking from 17-20 degrees in the turns. The back straightaway is banked at 5 degrees and the frontstretch has progressive 9-11 degree banking. In the Gen 7 car this track has featured some of the best races we have seen.
When trying to project Kansas the most important track outside of Kansas is Las Vegas. Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kanas Speedway are often considered sister tracks as they are both 1.5-mile tri-ovals. At this point in their lives both tracks have also moved solidly into the higher tire wear category. However, there are some meaningful differences. Most importantly, as noted above, Kansas has progressive banking, while Las Vegas has fixed 20 degree banking in the turns.
As has been the case for most of the year, books this week are conservative and relatively sharp. So there is not a ton of value on the board. In fact, at this time I have only made two bets this week. So, lets dig into the one bet that is still available that I recommend.
Toyota owns Kansas Speedway. More specifically in the Gen 7 car 23XI has been incredibly successful at this track. Of the four races here in 2022 and 2023 23XI has won three. The team swept 2022 and won the first race of 2023. The second race of 2023 wasn’t won by a 23XI driver, but was won by 23XI co-owner Denny Hamlin. For whatever reason, this team simply has this track figured out.
If we look at the two 23XI drivers performance at Las Vegas and Kansas over the last five races (four in 2023 and Las Vegas earlier this year), we see that the two drivers have been strong throughout. If we look at Front Runners from Win the Race we can see that over those five races Reddick has an average running position of 8.33, good for fourth best in the Cup Series. Both drivers have also racked up a large chunk of fastest laps over that time period.
If we dial in to Kansas only in 2023 the numbers are even stronger. In 2023 Bubba Wallace spent 27.1% of his laps inside the Top 3 at Kansas. Tyler Reddick recorded 26.9% of his laps inside the Top 3. Those numbers are good for 4th and 5th best in the Cup Series. Bubba Wallace also has the third best incident adjusted speed rank in those races, while Tyler Reddick comes in sixth in that metric.
The team has also been strong on intermediate tracks so far in 2024. The Cup Series has used the intermediate package at four events in 2024, Las Vegas, Bristol, Texas, and Dover. Bristol is an entirely different kind of race, so I’m focused on Las Vegas, Texas, and Dover. In those three races Tyler Reddick’s incident adjusted speed has been second, second, and fourth. Bubba Wallace has been more middling in those races, at 18th, 19th, and 12th, but the results of his teammate still suggests speed is available.
The Speed Geeks Sim Center at Win the Race has the fair value of 23XI to win at +450. So at the +500 available at Bet365 and Hard Rock means that even building in an error bar on the +500 number we can be confident that the bet is value. I made this just my second bet of the week and would bet this down to +475.
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