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As I predicted on DALESCENTER, Toyotas led the charge in long-run averages during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series Advent Health 400 at Kansas. While I was wrong about qualifying (thanks, clouds!), we’ve moved on to finding methods of profit for race #12 in the 2023 season.
The books are extremely high on Toyota with the exception of Bubba Wallace and Ty Gibbs. It seems that the Joe Gibbs Racing camp along with Tyler Reddick of 23XI has superior long-run speed compared to the rest of the field.
Cup practice from Saturday at Kansas: pic.twitter.com/wJjUliHIW9
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) May 6, 2023
Let’s get right into it.
Remember what Kevin Harvick did when he broke his long winless drought in 2022? He went back-to-back. I have my eye on Truex to do the same today.
Long-run practice data tells us that Truex has very little falloff compared to the rest of the field. Kansas has been an excellent track for him over the years, and the team returns here with clear speed.
This is such an easy writeup for a guy, who in his last twelve Kansas starts, scored 11 Top 10’s, 6 Top 5’s, 4 Top 3’s, and 2 wins.
While the books are more bullish on manufacturer teammates of Hamlin, Bell, and Reddick, I think the data on Truex is better than all of his Toyota allies. Thus, I believe +750 is a nice pricetag today.
I grabbed 40-1 pre-practice assuming this line would disappear after track time, but the books valuing the Toyota drivers so high must play a factor in Suarez not falling far off of 40-1. Suarez was super impressive in practice on Saturday.
Suarez was in Group A. His practice data is right in between the Toyota’s on long-run speed. Most of the Toyota’s practiced in Group B, when the racetrack was faster.
In essence: Suarez paced with the fastest drivers in Group B when he practiced on a slower racetrack according to the data. That stood out to me more than just about anything else during the entire session.
Add in the fact that Suarez was very good here last year and had a rocket at Michigan (comparable track), and we’ve got ourselves a tasty underdog play. I’d bet it down to 30-1.
Deja vu? Damn right. We wrote these two guys up at Dover as well last week.
Kansas, like Dover, was an abysmal track for the Ford camp in 2022. The top-finishing Ford finished 11th and 9th in the two Kansas races last year. Austin Cindric was the top Ford the first time around, while Ryan Blaney was in the second.
Austin Cindric finished 6th at Las Vegas earlier this year and was also the top-finishing Ford in that event. So we have some data to lean on in validating a small bet here on Austin Cindric.
Michael McDowell has 5 finishes of 19th or better in his last 6 Kansas starts. If Ford is off pace today like I expect, I like McDowell’s chances here if he runs inside the Top 20 most of the day. If the top Ford is a borderline Top 10 finisher, then 65-1 is worth a sprinkle for McDowell.
If the Fords are off, the slate is wide open for some underdog plays. Consider these with very small unit allocations.
I’m not always the biggest fan of lines priced in this ballpark, but this one certainly caught my eye. This is the max bet of the weekend. NOTE: I’m waiting for Caesar’s to post their H2H bets to see if they post a better line than -155. If not, take this line over on Barstool.
I love Josh Berry, but he has one start on an intermediate-style track in the Cup Series Gen 7 racecar. He started 32nd at Las Vegas and finished 29th in Chase Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. He is filling in for the injured Alex Bowman in the #48 this time around.
Ty Gibbs finished 22nd at Vegas, but he’s in a fast Toyota and has eight starts on intermediates since 2022. This year Ty’s performance has clearly improved as he’s adapted much better to this racecar as a full-time Cup Series rookie.
To summarize: I’m riding with Gen 7 experience and I’m riding with raw speed. Ty Gibbs leads both categories. I think Josh will struggle today, and Ty will hang around the Top 10.
