Texas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile quad-oval with asymmetric corner geometry. The difference in turns is the product of a controversial 2017 reconfiguration that itself was a product of significant issues with weapers at the track. Following that repave, Turns 1 and 2 carry 20 degrees of banking while Turns 3 and 4 retained their original 24 degrees, with five degrees on both the frontstretch and backstretch. The racing surface was also widened, leaving 80 feet of width in Turns 1 and 2 versus 60 feet in Turns 3 and 4. Despite the track having been made wider, the track generally has a single effective racing groove. Tire wear at the track is generally low compounding this issue.
In addition to the issues associated with a single groove track there is a well-documented bump in Turn 4 above the tunnel that emerged from the reconfiguration and has only become more problematic in the Next Gen era. The low ride heights of the current car make bottoming out a real risk, and side-by-side racing through that section frequently sends the outside car spinning into the wall. The Cup races here have been one of the most yellow-flag-prone events on the schedule. Last year’s race featured 16 cautions, and the previous four Cup races at Texas all produced 11 or more yellows, with the 2024 spring race tying the track record (originally set in the September 2022 500-miler) and setting the all-time mark for cautions in a 400-mile race on a 1.5-mile track. The issue appears in the lower series as well. Last year Xfinity race went to double overtime with 11 cautions for 62 yellow flag laps. The 2025 Truck race produced 11 cautions for 57 yellow flag laps and required a red flag for wall repairs in Turn 4.
Given all the chaos of this race, projecting the race itself is quite challenging. There have been 26 Gen 7 era races at 1.5-mile quad/tri-ovals. In 20 of those races, the winner has had an average running position under 8. All four winners at Texas have been over 8. That includes the two highest ARPs of the track type (13.32 and 12.93). The two non-Texas races where the winner had an average running position over 8 were both won by Ross Chastain. The first was the 2022 fall Kansas race, where he won from 20th, and the second was the 2026 Coke 600, where he won from the rear, which inflated his average running position. So with all of this in mind, my best bets for this week are targeting qualifying, which hopefully takes out some of the chaos.
So far this year there have been two races at traditional 1.5-mile ovals. At Las Vegas Christopher Bell was on the pole and Denny Hamlin was second. The second row also had two Toyotas, with Ty Gibbs lining up third and Bubba Wallace starting fourth. At Kansas Tyler Reddick was on the pole, Denny Hamlin again lined up second, and Ty Gibbs started third, with Chase Briscoe starting fifth. Simply put, Toyota has brought strong speed to the 1.5-mile ovals in the 670hp package.
In every event at traditional ovals the pole winner has come from the drivers who’s qualifying attempt was in the last quarter of the field. At Phoenix Joey Logano was the 27th driver to go out, at Vegas Bell was the 35th driver out, at Darlington Tyler Reddick’s run was 29th, at Martinsville Hamlin qualified 30th, at Bristol Ryan Blaney qualified 34th, and at Kansas Reddick qualified 35th. This puts the best non-Toyota qualifier at Las Vegas and Kansas, Kyle Larson, at a likely disadvantage this week, as he will be just the sixth car to make a qualifying attempt this weekend as he finished last at Talladega after getting collected in the big one last Sunday.
Hamlin will qualify 31st this weekend. Given his two runner up positions at the 1.5-mile ovals in 2026 I’m buying his raw qualifying speed at this track type. Between his qualifying speed and qualifying position (31 of 38) the Win The Race Qualifying Sim actually has Denny as the favorite to win the pole this weekend. In the Win The Race Simulations Denny is projected to win the pole a bit under 18% of the time, translating to fair odds of +466. This is significantly better than the +800 odds currently being offered at Bet365. I would be comfortable betting this down to +600.
Christopher Bell’s qualifying record in 2026 is mixed, he won the pole at Las Vegas, but was just 11th at Kansas. However, at Kansas he also had to qualify in the first half of drivers, going out 16th due to his 27th place finish at Bristol the week prior. So, given his qualifying position at that race, the 11th place start is not a bad result. This week Bell will qualify 26th, that’s a touch farther back that I would ideally like, but given the very favorable odds Bet365 is offering, I’m willing to take a shot on him. I would bet this down to +1000.
I haven’t made this bet myself, but it is worth considering. Buescher qualified in the Top 10 at both Las Vegas and Kansas. In addition, while it has been several years, Buescher did qualify second at Texas in 2023. By virtue of his second place finish at Talladega he is also going to be the second to last driver to qualify this weekend. Bet365 is offering quite long odds on Buescher given the speed shown and his order in the qualifying process. If you want to sprinkle on Buescher at 20-1 I think its not a bad bet and there is value on it down to +1500.
