The NASCAR Cup Series returns to intermediate track racing this weekend at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas for the AdventHealth 400. Kansas is a 1.5-mile tri-oval with progressive banking of up to 20 degrees in the turns. The frontstretch is banked at 10 degrees while the backstretch features 5 degrees of banking. Kansas is often viewed as a “sister” track to Las Vegas Motor Speedway, as they are both tri-oval tracks with similar banking and tire wear.
Kansas was repaved in 2012. With over a decade of weathering the track now features fairly significant tire wear. Despite this, in last year’s fall race two tire stops were utilized by some teams to gain track position. Driver’s who utilized two tire stops were able to maintain track position against drivers with four fresh tires. Two weeks after the Kanas race at Las Vegas, the same tires were in use, and two tire stops were again used by some teams. However, this spring at Las Vegas, there was just one natural caution. With the final caution coming with over 50 laps to go, two tire stops were not used. As such, there is some uncertainty as to just how much tire wear and two vs four-tire stop strategy will be in play this weekend.
Kyle Larson is a beast at 1.5-mile long ovals. Since 2023 he has run 13 races at Las Vegas and Kansas. In those races he has finished in the Top 3 an astounding seven times (53.85%). Even if we expand the sample to include Charlotte, Texas, and Homestead, where he has had less success, his Top 3 rate is still 38.1% (8/21).
Earlier this year at Las Vegas Larson finished seventh. However, his average running position of 3.93 was second only to Christopher Bell. He ran 45.69% of his laps inside the Top 3. His driver rating of 116 and True Performance Rating of 80.85 were both fourth best. Ultimately, he may not have finished in the Top 3, but he certainly had a car that was capable of doing so.
In the 200,000 simulations we ran for Kansas at Win The Race, Larson finishes in the Top 3 over 42% of the time. That makes him the second most likely driver to finish Top 3 (although the simulations have him third most likely to win, behind Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, but within the margin of error of the simulations to Bell). At 42.5% Top 3 rate Larson is well clear of the 35.71% implied by the +180 being offered by Bet365. Given Larson’s amazing history at this track and his strong performance at Las Vegas just a few weeks ago, I’m buying the simulations optimism on Larson. However, I do want to keep a strong edge, so I would only play this down to +160.
