For the first time in nearly a month all three NASCAR national series will be in action together this weekend. NASCAR heads to the Tennessee-Virginia boarder to take on the Last Great Colosseum of Bristol Motor Speedway. A concrete true-oval measuring just 0.533 miles in length the track features exceptionally steep banking, 26 degrees in the turns for such a short circuit. The straightaways are banked at 6 degrees. This profile allows cars to maintain high speeds despite the tight radius, routinely producing lap times under 15 seconds at full race pace. Bristol’s concrete surface, which replaced the old asphalt in 2000, provides a distinct character compared to most Cup Series tracks, making the track truly unique.
Over the past two years, Bristol’s Cup Series races have been defined by a fascinating and at times unpredictable tire wear. For the spring 2024 Food City 500 Goodyear brought back the same tire setup used the previous fall, but the track refused to rubber in, causing a number of failures and cording. Ultimately teams were permitted to buy an additional set of tires from Goodyear in order to ensure teams did not run out of tires before the end of the race. The fall race on the other hand played out in traditional fashion without tire wear issues, despite the same tire codes that were used in the spring being used again.
Last spring during practice, there was an obvious lack of rubber going down into the track, with little bits balling up in the high groove and tires showing signs of cording after just a short run. However, for the race itself there were no issues with tire wear. So for the fall 2025 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, Goodyear took deliberate action: a new, softer right-side tire compound was introduced with the explicit goal of promoting greater wear and bringing tire management back into play as a strategic element. However, during practice teams saw little actual tire wear. The following night during the race however, tire wear was significant, and although most teams did not end up needing extra tries, NASCAR once again authorized teams to buy an additional set of tires.
This recent history of tire wear not matching between races, or even between practice and race day, makes predicting this race particularly challenging. The ultimate cause appears to be the sensitivity of Bristol’s concrete surface to temperature swings. Cooler nighttime or early-spring conditions seem to prevent the track from taking rubber and dramatically accelerate tire wear in ways that warm-weather practice sessions simply don’t predict.
Given the potential unpredictable nature of this weekend, I want to pivot my early week bets to the more forgiving Top 10 market. I also want to look at drivers who have potential upside that the oddsmakers don’t seem to fully appreciate.
in the six Gen 7 races at Bristol Bubba Wallace has the 11th best average running position, 13.53, among all drivers who have made six starts. If we look at just the past two years he is ninth best with an ARP of 11.7. Although he only has one Top 10 finish in the Gen 7, the ability to run up front is clearly there. Coupled with the speed 23XI has brought to the track every week so far in 2026, I’m buying the upside of Bubba. In Win The Race’s 200,000 simulations of this weekend’s race we have Bubba finishing Top 10 42.8% of the time, translating to fair odds of +134. Given the uncertainty of the tire wear and the desire to keep an edge, I would bet this down to +175.
Chris Buescher won the first race here in the Gen 7 car back in 2022. He followed that up with a fourth place finish in 2023 and seventh in the 2024 spring race. He had a poor race last spring, but rebounded nicely in the fall, finishing 11th, but running over 75% of his laps in the Top 10. Last month at Darlington, which uses the same horsepower and areo package that will be used this weekend, Buescher had an average running position of 4.12 and completed 99.32% of his laps inside the Top 10. Simply put, Buescher has a strong history at this track and, while Darlington is not the most similar track, has performed well in 2026 at a banked track using this week’s racing package.
In the 200,000 simulations of this race at Win The Race we have Chris Buescher finishing in the Top 10 44.6% of the time. His fair odds based on a 44.6% Top 10 rate translate to +124. As with Bubba, I want to hedge the uncertainty of the tire wear and keep a significant edge on this bet, so I would bet this down to +160.
