The NASCAR Cup Series returns to a 1.5-mile “cookie-cutter” track on Sunday for the first time since May at Charlotte. Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile tri-oval. The track features 17-20 degrees of progressive banking in the turns. The frontstretch is banked at 10 degrees and the back straightaway is banked at 5 degrees.
Kansas is often considered a sister track to Las Vegas Motor Speedway making that track the primary comparable track. However, there are lots of relevant tracks to consider when handicapping Kansas as there is significant correlation between performance at Kansas and Darlington, Charlotte, and Homestead. Overall intermediate package performance is also a good predictor of performance here.
Alex Bowman has had a wild year. In the eight races at 1.5-mile tracks, plus Darlington and Nashville he has an average finish of 22.5. Of course that does also include finishes of seventh at Las Vegas 1, second at Homestead, and fifth at Kansas 1. At Texas he also had an average running position of 12.61, before incidents relegated him to a 35th place finish. He also had above average speed at Charlotte. Even at the start of the playoffs he managed 21 fastest laps at Darlington despite finishing 31st.
Despite his wide range of outcomes in 2025, Kansas is one of Bowman’s best historical tracks. In six starts here in the Gen 7 car he has yet to finish outside the Top 10. He has an average driver rating of 98.43 in those six races and an average running position of 9.5.
If we add in the six races at Las Vegas the numbers remain incredibly strong. In those six races Bowman has another five Top 10 finishes. In short, despite his up and down performance at intermediates in general in 2025, I expect Bowman to show up strong on Sunday.
Given Bowman’s historical performance at Kansas and its sister track, I’m thrilled to be getting +150 for him to just finish Top 10. At Win The Race our simulations have this fair at just a touch over even money. I would be comfortable betting this down to +115.
