The second round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs begins Sunday afternoon at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Last year the New Hampshire race became chaotic in stage three as rain caused delays and general chaos. This will be the first time New Hampshire has held a playoff race since the track went to a single race per year in 2018.
New Hampshire is a true oval featuring variable banking of 2–7 degrees in the turns. This minimal banking sets the track apart from the other “short flat tracks” of Phoenix Raceway, Richmond Raceway, and Iowa Speedway. Despite the reduced banking at New Hampshire, these tracks remain the primary comparable tracks. Its long straights and tight corners are similar to Gateway. So despite Gateway being run using the intermediate package, the track is a useful reference point for New Hampshire.
Josh Berry exited the playoffs on Saturday with his third DNF in a row. Berry’s three race playoff run was the worst in history in terms of points scored. He finished dead last in all three races. Even before the disaster that was the last three races, Berry had been having a rough run. Since his win at Las Vegas in March Berry had just three Top 10 finishes.
Despite his poor performance over the past several months, there is reason for optimism this weekend. Of his 12 Top 10 finishes in the Cup Series, five have come at short flat tracks. That includes a third place finish at New Hampshire in 2024. Berry also managed an eighth place finish at Richmond last month and a fourth place finish at Phoenix this spring. Overall in the Gen 7 Car Berry has finished Top 10 in six of the 13 races at comparable tracks. Berry has has also been faster than the median speed speed in nine of 13 races, including all four races this year.
The implied probability of +185 is just 35.09%. Given Berry’s overall history I’ll gladly bet that he has a better than 35.09% change of finishing Top 10. I would be comfortable betting this down to +125.
