On Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series races in Atlanta for the second time this year. It marks 2025’s first revisit of a venue the Series already held a race at. However, as Atlanta is a drafting track, the spring race will not provide as much insight as the spring races at Las Vegas and Kansas will when we return to those tracks in the fall.
As just noted, Atlanta is one of three drafting tracks on the Cup Series schedule. At 1.5-miles in length it is significantly shorter than Daytona (2.5-miles) and Talladega (2.66-miles). Atlanta also has slightly less banking, with its turns banked at 28 degrees as compared to Daytona at 31 degrees and Talladega at 33 degrees. As such, when handicapping Atlanta the most important factor is previous Atlanta performance. However, overall drafting skill does matter, so recent performance at Daytona and Talladega must be taken into account.
The Cup Series has run seven races at Atlanta since it was reconfigured to a drafting track prior to the 2022 season. Joey Logano has won two of those races. Logano has also grabbed one stage win over that time period. His Team Penske teammates, Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney each have three stage wins in those seven races. Austin Cindric has led laps in six of the seven races, including 47 laps this spring and 97 laps last fall. Ryan Blaney has one finish outside the Top 10 at Atlanta since 2022.
I’m focusing even more on the five races from 2023 to present. I’m doing that because the 2022 season was the first year in the Gen 7 car and the first year at the reconfigured track. So teams were still feeling out the new car and reconfigured track. Over those five races Team Penske holds the top three spots in laps led. Joey Logano has led 270 laps, Austin Cindric has led 186, and Ryan Blaney has led 92.
As one might suspect based on the laps led by the trio they also lead the field in average running position. Cindric’s average running position is a Cup Series best at 8.67. He is followed by Joey Logano at 10.5 and Ryan Blaney at 11.3. Ryan Blaney has a Series best average finish of 5.0. In short, Team Penske has dominated Atlanta since the reconfigure.
The books have keyed in on the success of the Penske drivers. Although the order varies some from book to book, they are the three favorites at every book that has odds for the race. That said, as much as the books respect them, I still think there is value on the trio to win as a team.
At Win The Race we simulation each NASCAR races 20,000 times using our proprietary performance scores and simulation model. This week our simulations show at least some value on all three Penske drivers on an individual basis. However, when combined into the winning team market we are seeing a larger overall edge.
At Caesars Sportsbook Ryan Blaney is currently +800 (11.11% implied), Austin Cindric is +900 (10.0% implied), and Joey Logano is +950 (9.52% implied). This gives a total implied probability to win of 30.63% for the team on an individual basis. However, betting on them to win as a team Caesars is offering odds of +250, which has an implied probability of 28.57%. So rather than betting each one individually, we get a better edge betting on Team Penske to win.
Our simulations have the fair market value on Team Penske to win at +190. That’s well clear of the +250 being offered by Caesars for a team that has the three drivers with the best history at the reconfigured Atlanta. I would be comfortable betting this down to +210.
