What’s Happening?

The NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs are creeping closer and closer, and the sense of urgency and intensity is ratcheting up. With only six races left in the regular season, here is a look at the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoff bubble and those who are safe alongside those in danger.

• The NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoff field includes 12 drivers. To qualify, a driver must have won a race during the regular season or be among the highest-placed winless drivers in the regular season standings. If there are more than 12 winners, the drivers with the most wins will get the higher seeds, and the tiebreaker between drivers with one win is where they sit in the points standings.
• The “Win and you’re in” style format often changes the Playoff bubble. One upset win could take a driver from safe to fighting for their Playoff lives.
• The Xfinity Series has seen fewer upset wins than the Cup Series, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see one. Plenty of talented drivers have yet to reach victory lane, and plenty of races could produce surprise winners.

Locked In or Virtually Locked In (Race Winners)

The Drivers: Shane Van Gisbergen (3 Wins), Austin Hill (2 Wins), Chandler Smith (2 Wins), Sam Mayer (2 Wins), Cole Custer (1 Win), Justin Allgaier (1 Win), Riley Herbst (1 Win), and Jesse Love (1 Win)

With six races left in the regular season, the Xfinity Series has eight full-time drives with at least one win. While it’s possible to get more than 12 winners before the end of the regular season, it’s incredibly unlikely as every Xfinity Series winner this year, and all except one since the start of 2023, has come from either JR Motorsports, Kaulig Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing, and Joe Gibbs Racing. While wild card races like Watkins Glen, Daytona, and Atlanta still remain, these drivers should feel pretty safe, and each driver with multiple wins is already locked in, no matter what.

For these drivers, it’s all about gaining as many Playoff bonus points as possible via race wins, stage wins, and bonus points for finishing in the top 10 in points (15 for 1st, 10 for 2nd, 8 for 3rd, etc., until 1 for 10th). Custer, with a 56-point lead, feels pretty safe as the regular season points leader, but a lot can happen between now and Bristol in September. It’s also worth noting that fifth through eighth (Herbst, Love, A.J. Allmendinger, and Sheldon Creed) in points are all separated by only 43 points, and that’s worth a few extra bonus points.

Feeling Pretty Good (Drivers In on Points)

The Drivers: A.J. Allmendinger (+102) and Sheldon Creed (+69)

Both Allmendinger and Creed should make the Playoffs on points, and it’s not out of the question that they win a race before the regular season ends. Even if they do not win, they have a two-driver cushion beneath them, which allows for a couple of potential upset winners, a nice gap with two drafting tracks, and one road course left in the regular season.

Both drivers find themselves in the heat of the battle between fifth and eighth in points. While race wins and stage wins are the best ways to earn Playoff points, this is the race these drivers are watching for as they try to position themselves for a deep Playoff run.

The Playoff Bubble

The Drivers: Parker Kligerman (+46), Ryan Sieg (+3), and Sammy Smith (-3)

This may be the most volatile Playoff bubble in NASCAR right now. With the upcoming wild card races, this bubble could easily move upward, and it’s already tight. Kligerman is hoping for no upset winners, while Sieg and Smith are focused on outperforming each other.

Conventional wisdom would say that Smith will find a way past Sieg, as Smith clearly has the equipment edge. However, if a surprise winner emerges in the next few weeks, that won’t matter. The best path for either driver, who both have shown they can compete for wins, is to win in these final six regular season races.

Must-Win Territory

The Drivers: Every winless driver that is 14th or worse in points; notables include Brandon Jones (-69), Brennan Poole (-157), Josh Williams (-201), Jeb Burton (-224), and Jeremy Clements (-236).

It may not be mathematically impossible for these drivers to make the Playoffs on points, but they’re so far back that they have to go for wins. Brandon Jones has sometimes shown speed with two poles and a second-place finish at Charlotte, but he needs to find more to avoid missing the Playoffs for the second straight year.

Former superspeedway winners Jeremy Clements and Jeb Burton have circled Daytona and Atlanta as their best opportunity. Brennan Poole came within a few thousand feet of winning at Talladega in the spring. Clements also has a road course win on his resume, meaning he could be one to watch at Watkins Glen. Josh Williams is in equipment capable of winning, so you can’t count him out.

What do you think about all this? Let us know on Discord or X what your take is, and don’t forget you can also follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and even YouTube.