What’s Happening?

Chandler Smith has improved so far in his second NASCAR Xfinity Series season, but when will it be enough to jump up to the sport’s highest level? Here is an honest look at Smith’s Cup Series prospects.

• Chandler Smith joined Joe Gibbs Racing full-time in 2024 after spending 2023 with Chevolret and Kaulig Racing. This was a return to Toyota after spending time as a Toyota development driver in the lower ranks through the late 2010s and early 2020s.
• Many saw Smith as a candidate for the No. 19 Cup Series car at JGR, replacing Martin Truex Jr. However, that did not happen, pushing Smith’s Cup Series timeline back at least one season.
• Fans know Smith has potential, but he may not be as highly touted as some other drivers in the NASCAR pipeline. What does his Cup Series future look like?

Smith’s Situation

As we dig into in the article below, generally speaking, drivers spend between three and four full-time seasons in the lower series before jumping up to the Cup Series. Of the 12 current Cup Series drives who debuted in the 2020s, 75% spent that much time in the lower series. Two drivers spent slightly more time (Austin Cindric and Noah Gragson), and two spent slightly less (Josh Berry and Ty Gibbs)

read also…

How Long Should Drivers Stay in Lower Series Before Moving Up to Cup?

How Long Should Drivers Stay in Lower Series Before Moving Up to Cup?

What’s Happening? The debate about the right time for a driver to jump up to the Cup Series was ignited…

Read More

Smith is in his fourth lower-tier series season but hasn’t been linked to any Cup Series opportunities for 2025. He has shown improvement, almost equalling his top-10 and top-five output from 2023 and doubling his win total all only 18 races into the season. What is it that’s holding him back?

Some of it is his manufacturer, Toyota, which already has a pretty stacked pipeline, with their top prospect being Corey Heim. Toyota has heavily backed Heim all the way up, and it seems that Toyota plans on bringing Heim into the Cup Series sooner rather than later—even if that’s not a next-year thing.

read also…

Corey Heim May Not Make It to Cup After All

Corey Heim May Not Make It to Cup After All

What’s Happening? Corey Heim is arguably the hottest prospect in all of NASCAR, and fans are clambering to see him…

Read More

Considering Smith’s current team, Joe Gibbs Racing, it’s tough to imagine Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, or Chase Briscoe stepping aside after 2025. Could Denny Hamlin leave JGR to give Chandler Smith a shot in that No. 11 car? Hamlin has expressed interest in racing for 23XI “At some point,” but is 2026 that time?

Smith may have to look elsewhere for a Cup Series opportunity. Maybe Legacy Motor Club will open up a ride for Smith for 2026, or Smith will move manufacturers if another ride becomes available.

Either way, Smith probably will not join the Cup Series in 2025. However, 2026 could open up some interesting opportunities.

What do you think about all this? Let us know on Discord or X what your take is, and don’t forget you can also follow us on Instagram, Facebook, and even YouTube.